Models
ESAAR (INDIA) LTD.BSE 531502Commercial Services & Supplies
₹329per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹329implied FY26 P/E 22.5× · EV/EBITDA 27.5×
Against CMP ₹9.69+3298.6%close of 23 Oct 2026
Growth the CMP implies—%no growth rate between −20% and 45% a year brings the value to the CMP on your other inputs
Value after FY3182%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹250₹488
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹8₹15
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 124 |
| PV of terminal value | 549 |
| Enterprise value | 673 |
| less net debt | 0 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 673 |
| ÷ 2.04 crore shares | ₹329 |
82% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 341 | 367 | 400 | 439 | 488 |
| 10.50% | 313 | 335 | 361 | 393 | 431 |
| 11.00% | 289 | 307 | 329 | 355 | 386 |
| 11.50% | 268 | 284 | 302 | 324 | 349 |
| 12.00% | 250 | 264 | 279 | 297 | 318 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹9.69; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 246 · 327 · 433 |
| Draws below the CMP | 0% |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.78 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.44 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.39 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 21 | 7 | 15 | 41 | 53 | 69 | 89 | 116 | 151 |
| growth % | 137.5 | (69.4) | 125.9 | 175.6 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| EBITDA | 13 | (2) | (0) | 24 | 32 | 41 | 54 | 70 | 91 |
| margin % | 61.5 | (24.2) | (0.7) | 60.1 | 60.1 | 60.1 | 60.1 | 60.1 | 60.1 |
| less depreciation | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (1) | (1) |
| EBIT | 13 | (2) | (0) | 24 | 32 | 41 | 53 | 69 | 90 |
| less tax on EBIT | (7) | (9) | (12) | (15) | (20) | (26) | |||
| NOPAT | 17 | 22 | 29 | 38 | 49 | 64 | |||
| add depreciation | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| less capex | (2) | (0) | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | (1) | (1) |
| less working-capital build | — | (4) | (5) | (7) | (9) | (11) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (43) | 72 | (5) | — | 19 | 24 | 32 | 41 | 53 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 18 | 21 | 24 | 28 | 33 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 24 | 32 | 41 | 53 | 69 | 90 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 32 | 41 | 53 | 69 | 90 | |
| Profit after tax | 11 | 22 | 29 | 38 | 49 | 64 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 0 | 19 | 43 | 75 | 116 | 169 |
| Working capital | 13 | 17 | 22 | 29 | 37 | 49 |
| Net block and other assets | 106 | 106 | 106 | 106 | 106 | 106 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 40 | 62 | 91 | 129 | 179 | 243 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 19 | 24 | 32 | 41 | 54 | |
| Investing (capex) | 0 | (0) | (0) | (1) | (1) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 19 | 24 | 32 | 41 | 53 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 19 | 24 | 32 | 41 | 53 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 30% | 60.1% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹329 | 3298.6% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.