Models
ESPIRE HOSPITALITY LIMITEDBSE 532016Leisure Services
₹84per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹84implied FY26 P/E 13.7× · EV/EBITDA 9.0×
Against CMP ₹141.05−40.2%close of 28 Oct 2026
Growth the CMP implies21.2%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3165%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹55₹144
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹132₹440
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 78 |
| PV of terminal value | 149 |
| Enterprise value | 227 |
| less net debt | (101) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 126 |
| ÷ 1.49 crore shares | ₹84 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 89 | 99 | 111 | 125 | 144 |
| 10.50% | 78 | 87 | 96 | 108 | 122 |
| 11.00% | 69 | 76 | 84 | 94 | 105 |
| 11.50% | 61 | 67 | 74 | 82 | 92 |
| 12.00% | 55 | 60 | 65 | 72 | 80 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹141.05; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 50 · 83 · 123 |
| Draws below the CMP | 96% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.76 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.44 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.41 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 19 | 36 | 120 | 134 | 151 | 170 | 191 | 215 | 242 |
| growth % | 1071.3 | 91.7 | 234.3 | 12.3 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 12.5 |
| EBITDA | 4 | 7 | 22 | 25 | 28 | 32 | 36 | 40 | 45 |
| margin % | 19.2 | 19.4 | 18.8 | 18.7 | 18.7 | 18.7 | 18.7 | 18.7 | 18.7 |
| less depreciation | (3) | (4) | (5) | (11) | (12) | (14) | (15) | (17) | (19) |
| EBIT | 1 | 3 | 17 | 14 | 16 | 18 | 20 | 23 | 26 |
| less tax on EBIT | (4) | (5) | (5) | (6) | (7) | (8) | |||
| NOPAT | 10 | 11 | 13 | 14 | 16 | 18 | |||
| add depreciation | 3 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 12 | 14 | 15 | 17 | 19 |
| less capex | (18) | (36) | (24) | 0 | 0 | (4) | (9) | (15) | (23) |
| less working-capital build | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (2) | (34) | (53) | — | 23 | 22 | 20 | 18 | 14 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 22 | 19 | 16 | 12 | 9 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 102, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 14 | 16 | 18 | 20 | 23 | 26 |
| Interest at 11% on debt | (11) | (11) | (11) | (11) | (11) | |
| Profit before tax | 5 | 7 | 9 | 12 | 15 | |
| Profit after tax | 8 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 10 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 1 | 17 | 31 | 44 | 54 | 60 |
| Working capital | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) |
| Net block and other assets | 238 | 226 | 217 | 210 | 209 | 213 |
| Debt | 102 | 102 | 102 | 102 | 102 | 102 |
| Equity | 51 | 55 | 59 | 66 | 74 | 85 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 16 | 18 | 22 | 25 | 30 | |
| Investing (capex) | 0 | (4) | (9) | (15) | (23) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 16 | 14 | 13 | 10 | 6 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 16 | 14 | 13 | 10 | 6 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 12.5% | 18.7% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹84 | (40.2)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.