Models
FOSECO CRUCIBLE INDIA LIMITEDBSE 523160Industrial Products
₹335per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹335implied FY26 P/E 8.7× · EV/EBITDA 5.6×
Against CMP ₹1,966.00−82.9%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3158%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹288₹429
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹1,155₹2,050
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 63 |
| PV of terminal value | 88 |
| Enterprise value | 151 |
| less net debt | 37 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 188 |
| ÷ 0.56 crore shares | ₹335 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 343 | 358 | 377 | 400 | 429 |
| 10.50% | 326 | 339 | 354 | 373 | 395 |
| 11.00% | 312 | 323 | 335 | 350 | 368 |
| 11.50% | 299 | 308 | 319 | 332 | 346 |
| 12.00% | 288 | 296 | 305 | 316 | 328 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,966.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 286 · 336 · 391 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.86 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.48 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.02 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 155 | 168 | 174 | 172 | 169 | 167 | 164 | 162 | 159 |
| growth % | 1.5 | 8.6 | 3.7 | (1.3) | (1.5) | (1.5) | (1.5) | (1.5) | (1.5) |
| EBITDA | 25 | 35 | 41 | 27 | 27 | 26 | 26 | 26 | 25 |
| margin % | 16.3 | 21.0 | 23.3 | 15.8 | 15.8 | 15.8 | 15.8 | 15.8 | 15.8 |
| less depreciation | (8) | (8) | (9) | (12) | (12) | (11) | (11) | (11) | (11) |
| EBIT | 17 | 27 | 32 | 16 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 14 |
| less tax on EBIT | (5) | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) | |||
| NOPAT | 11 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 10 | |||
| add depreciation | 8 | 8 | 9 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 |
| less capex | (11) | (18) | (31) | 0 | 0 | (3) | (7) | (10) | (13) |
| less working-capital build | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 21 | 25 | (5) | — | 23 | 19 | 15 | 12 | 8 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 22 | 16 | 12 | 8 | 5 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 56.6% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 16 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 14 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 14 | |
| Profit after tax | 19 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Dividends | (11) | (6) | (6) | (6) | (6) | (6) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 37 | 54 | 67 | 76 | 82 | 85 |
| Working capital | 31 | 31 | 30 | 30 | 29 | 29 |
| Net block and other assets | 101 | 89 | 82 | 77 | 76 | 78 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 140 | 145 | 149 | 154 | 158 | 163 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 23 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 21 | |
| Investing (capex) | 0 | (3) | (7) | (10) | (13) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (6) | (6) | (6) | (6) | (6) | |
| Net change in cash | 17 | 13 | 9 | 6 | 3 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 23 | 19 | 15 | 12 | 8 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -1.5% | 15.8% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹335 | (82.9)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.