GLOBAL EDUCATION LIMITED — valuation model

GLOBAL EDUCATION LIMITEDGLOBALOther Consumer Services

₹118per share · Base Model Note

Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.

Scenario

Value per share, your model₹118implied FY26 P/E 23.1× · EV/EBITDA 16.8×

Against CMP ₹129.22−8.5%close of 2026-09-20

Growth the CMP implies35.2%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs

Value after FY3184%share of enterprise value in the terminal

This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.

Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP

DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid

₹89₹177

52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value

₹55₹137

From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore

PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow	97
PV of terminal value	504
Enterprise value	602
less net debt	0
less non-controlling interest	0
add non-operating investments	0
Equity value	602
÷ 5.09 crore shares	₹118

84% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.

Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore

Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm

Sensitivity · ₹ per share

Down Across

WACC ↓terminal growth →	4.0%	4.5%	5.0%	5.5%	6.0%
10.00%	122	132	144	159	177
10.50%	112	120	130	142	156
11.00%	103	110	118	128	139
11.50%	96	101	108	116	126
12.00%	89	94	100	106	114

The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹129.22; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.

Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together

10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share	87 · 116 · 153
Draws below the CMP	69%
Rank correlation with ebitda margin	+0.73
Rank correlation with discount rate	−0.45
Rank correlation with revenue growth	+0.43

Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.

Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore

History Forward

₹ crore	FY23	FY24	FY25	FY26	FY27	FY28	FY29	FY30	FY31
Revenue	62	74	72	94	122	159	206	268	348
growth %	—	19.9	(2.7)	29.8	30.0	30.0	30.0	30.0	30.0
EBITDA	34	44	35	36	46	60	79	102	133
margin %	55.5	59.0	48.3	38.1	38.1	38.1	38.1	38.1	38.1
less depreciation	(6)	(4)	(4)	(4)	(6)	(8)	(10)	(13)	(17)
EBIT	28	39	31	31	41	53	69	89	116
less tax on EBIT				(8)	(10)	(14)	(18)	(23)	(30)
NOPAT				23	30	39	51	66	86
add depreciation	6	4	4	4	6	8	10	13	17
less capex	(5)	(4)	(8)	(10)	(13)	(15)	(17)	(19)	(20)
less working-capital build				—	(12)	(16)	(20)	(26)	(34)
Free cash flow to firm	21	18	16	—	11	16	24	34	49
Discount factor					0.949	0.855	0.770	0.694	0.625
Present value					11	14	18	24	30

History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.

The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 19.2% of profit

₹ crore	FY26	FY27	FY28	FY29	FY30	FY31
Income statement
EBIT	31	41	53	69	89	116
Interest at 8% on debt		0	0	0	0	0
Profit before tax		41	53	69	89	116
Profit after tax	27	30	39	51	66	86
Dividends	(5)	(6)	(8)	(10)	(13)	(17)
Balance sheet, year end
Cash	0	5	14	28	50	82
Working capital	40	52	68	88	115	149
Net block and other assets	100	107	114	121	127	130
Debt	0	0	0	0	0	0
Equity	131	156	187	229	282	352
Balance check	0	0	0	0	0	(0)
Cash flow
From operations		24	31	41	53	69
Investing (capex)		(13)	(15)	(17)	(19)	(20)
Financing (dividends)		(6)	(8)	(10)	(13)	(17)
Net change in cash		5	9	14	21	32
Free cash flow to equity		11	16	24	34	49

Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.

Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share

Scenario	Template	Growth	Margin	Rate	Terminal	₹ / share	vs CMP
Base · editing	DCF	30%	38.1%	11.00%	5%	₹118	(8.5)%

A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.