Models
GOLDEN TOBACCO LIMITEDGOLDENTOBC
₹174per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹174implied FY21 P/E 65.2× · EV/EBITDA 37.1×
Against CMP ₹22.15+683.4%close of 28 Oct 2026
Growth the CMP implies—%no growth rate between −20% and 45% a year brings the value to the CMP on your other inputs
Value after FY2681%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹132₹257
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹20₹36
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY22–FY26 free cash flow | 58 |
| PV of terminal value | 248 |
| Enterprise value | 306 |
| less net debt | (1) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 305 |
| ÷ 1.76 crore shares | ₹174 |
81% of the value sits after FY26. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 179 | 194 | 210 | 231 | 257 |
| 10.50% | 165 | 176 | 190 | 207 | 227 |
| 11.00% | 152 | 162 | 174 | 187 | 203 |
| 11.50% | 141 | 150 | 159 | 171 | 184 |
| 12.00% | 132 | 139 | 147 | 157 | 168 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹22.15; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 129 · 172 · 229 |
| Draws below the CMP | 0% |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.78 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.43 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.40 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY19 | FY20 | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 76 | 23 | 42 | 54 | 71 | 92 | 119 | 155 |
| growth % | — | (69.2) | 78.4 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| EBITDA | 42 | 8 | 8 | 11 | 14 | 18 | 24 | 31 |
| margin % | 55.8 | 33.0 | 19.7 | 19.7 | 19.7 | 19.7 | 19.7 | 19.7 |
| less depreciation | (1) | (1) | (0) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (2) |
| EBIT | 42 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 13 | 17 | 22 | 29 |
| less tax on EBIT | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | ||
| NOPAT | 8 | 10 | 13 | 17 | 22 | 29 | ||
| add depreciation | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| less capex | — | — | (0) | 0 | (0) | (1) | (1) | (2) |
| less working-capital build | — | (2) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | ||
| Free cash flow to firm | — | — | — | 9 | 12 | 15 | 19 | 24 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |||
| Present value | 9 | 10 | 11 | 13 | 15 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 2, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 8 | 10 | 13 | 17 | 22 | 29 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | |
| Profit before tax | 10 | 13 | 17 | 22 | 29 | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | 10 | 13 | 17 | 22 | 29 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 1 | 10 | 22 | 36 | 55 | 78 |
| Working capital | 5 | 7 | 9 | 12 | 15 | 20 |
| Net block and other assets | 142 | 141 | 141 | 141 | 140 | 141 |
| Debt | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Equity | (204) | (194) | (181) | (164) | (142) | (113) |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 9 | 12 | 15 | 20 | 26 | |
| Investing (capex) | 0 | (0) | (1) | (1) | (2) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 9 | 11 | 15 | 19 | 24 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 9 | 11 | 15 | 19 | 24 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY21 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 30% | 19.7% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹174 | 683.4% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.