Models
GOODRICKE GROUP LTD.BSE 500166Agricultural Food & other Products
₹68per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹68implied FY26 P/E 1.7× · EV/EBITDA 5.0×
Against CMP ₹219.30−69.1%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3166%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹54₹95
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹142₹250
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 50 |
| PV of terminal value | 98 |
| Enterprise value | 148 |
| less net debt | (2) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 146 |
| ÷ 2.16 crore shares | ₹68 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 70 | 74 | 80 | 86 | 95 |
| 10.50% | 65 | 69 | 73 | 79 | 85 |
| 11.00% | 61 | 64 | 68 | 72 | 77 |
| 11.50% | 57 | 60 | 63 | 67 | 71 |
| 12.00% | 54 | 56 | 59 | 62 | 66 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹219.30; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 47 · 68 · 90 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.93 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.34 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.02 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 882 | 824 | 929 | 801 | 761 | 723 | 687 | 653 | 620 |
| growth % | 7.2 | (6.6) | 12.8 | (13.8) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) |
| EBITDA | 9 | (45) | 25 | 29 | 28 | 27 | 25 | 24 | 23 |
| margin % | 1.1 | (5.5) | 2.6 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.7 |
| less depreciation | (21) | (21) | (20) | (18) | (18) | (17) | (16) | (15) | (14) |
| EBIT | (11) | (66) | 5 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 |
| less tax on EBIT | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |||
| NOPAT | 14 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 11 | |||
| add depreciation | 21 | 21 | 20 | 18 | 18 | 17 | 16 | 15 | 14 |
| less capex | (22) | (19) | (14) | (18) | (17) | (17) | (17) | (17) | (17) |
| less working-capital build | — | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (12) | (44) | 29 | — | 16 | 14 | 12 | 11 | 9 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 15 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 6 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 12, dividends at 0.3% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 11 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 |
| Interest at 16.5% on debt | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | |
| Profit before tax | 9 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | |
| Profit after tax | 26 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 8 |
| Dividends | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 10 | 23 | 35 | 45 | 53 | 60 |
| Working capital | 36 | 34 | 33 | 31 | 30 | 28 |
| Net block and other assets | 552 | 552 | 552 | 553 | 555 | 558 |
| Debt | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 |
| Equity | 304 | 314 | 324 | 334 | 343 | 351 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 30 | 29 | 27 | 26 | 24 | |
| Investing (capex) | (17) | (17) | (17) | (17) | (17) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | |
| Net change in cash | 13 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 7 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 13 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 7 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -5% | 3.7% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹68 | (69.1)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.