Models
GPT INFRAPROJECTS LTDGPTINFRAConstruction
₹142per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹142implied FY26 P/E 18.3× · EV/EBITDA 12.0×
Against CMP ₹118.34+20.2%close of 2026-09-20
Growth the CMP implies4.8%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3178%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹104₹219
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹96₹150
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 456 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,634 |
| Enterprise value | 2,090 |
| less net debt | (292) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,798 |
| ÷ 12.64 crore shares | ₹142 |
78% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 148 | 161 | 176 | 195 | 219 |
| 10.50% | 134 | 145 | 158 | 173 | 191 |
| 11.00% | 123 | 132 | 142 | 155 | 170 |
| 11.50% | 113 | 120 | 129 | 140 | 152 |
| 12.00% | 104 | 111 | 118 | 127 | 137 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹118.34; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 112 · 141 · 177 |
| Draws below the CMP | 16% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.62 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.61 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.42 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 809 | 1,018 | 1,188 | 1,290 | 1,400 | 1,519 | 1,648 | 1,788 | 1,940 |
| growth % | 20.0 | 25.8 | 16.7 | 8.6 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 8.5 |
| EBITDA | 87 | 121 | 136 | 174 | 189 | 205 | 222 | 241 | 262 |
| margin % | 10.8 | 11.9 | 11.4 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 13.5 |
| less depreciation | (19) | (16) | (18) | (26) | (28) | (30) | (33) | (36) | (39) |
| EBIT | 69 | 105 | 118 | 149 | 161 | 175 | 189 | 206 | 223 |
| less tax on EBIT | (39) | (42) | (45) | (49) | (53) | (58) | |||
| NOPAT | 110 | 119 | 129 | 140 | 152 | 165 | |||
| add depreciation | 19 | 16 | 18 | 26 | 28 | 30 | 33 | 36 | 39 |
| less capex | (57) | (13) | (61) | (55) | (59) | (57) | (54) | (51) | (47) |
| less working-capital build | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 62 | 100 | (32) | — | 88 | 103 | 119 | 137 | 157 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 84 | 88 | 92 | 95 | 98 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 294, dividends at 35.4% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 149 | 161 | 175 | 189 | 206 | 223 |
| Interest at 15.6% on debt | (46) | (46) | (46) | (46) | (46) | |
| Profit before tax | 115 | 129 | 144 | 160 | 177 | |
| Profit after tax | 97 | 85 | 95 | 106 | 118 | 131 |
| Dividends | (34) | (30) | (34) | (38) | (42) | (46) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 2 | 26 | 61 | 109 | 170 | 247 |
| Working capital | (44) | (44) | (44) | (44) | (44) | (44) |
| Net block and other assets | 1,407 | 1,438 | 1,464 | 1,486 | 1,501 | 1,509 |
| Debt | 294 | 294 | 294 | 294 | 294 | 294 |
| Equity | 591 | 646 | 707 | 776 | 852 | 937 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 113 | 126 | 139 | 154 | 170 | |
| Investing (capex) | (59) | (57) | (54) | (51) | (47) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (30) | (34) | (38) | (42) | (46) | |
| Net change in cash | 24 | 35 | 47 | 61 | 77 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 54 | 69 | 85 | 103 | 123 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 8.5% | 13.5% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹142 | 20.2% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.