Models
GREENLAM INDUSTRIES LTD.GREENLAMConsumer Durables
₹-17per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹(17)implied FY26 P/E (4.6)× · EV/EBITDA 1.7×
Against CMP ₹235.70−107.2%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3146%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹(20)₹(11)
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹198₹279
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 298 |
| PV of terminal value | 254 |
| Enterprise value | 553 |
| less net debt | (983) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | (430) |
| ÷ 25.51 crore shares | ₹(17) |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | (16) | (15) | (14) | (13) | (11) |
| 10.50% | (17) | (17) | (16) | (14) | (13) |
| 11.00% | (18) | (18) | (17) | (16) | (15) |
| 11.50% | (19) | (19) | (18) | (17) | (16) |
| 12.00% | (20) | (19) | (19) | (18) | (17) |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹235.70; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | (50) · (17) · 9 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.83 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.54 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.05 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2,026 | 2,306 | 2,569 | 3,046 | 3,610 | 4,277 | 5,069 | 6,006 | 7,118 |
| growth % | 18.9 | 13.8 | 11.4 | 18.6 | 18.5 | 18.5 | 18.5 | 18.5 | 18.5 |
| EBITDA | 233 | 295 | 275 | 319 | 379 | 449 | 532 | 631 | 747 |
| margin % | 11.5 | 12.8 | 10.7 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.5 |
| less depreciation | (63) | (87) | (114) | (142) | (166) | (197) | (233) | (276) | (327) |
| EBIT | 170 | 208 | 161 | 177 | 213 | 252 | 299 | 354 | 420 |
| less tax on EBIT | (66) | (79) | (94) | (112) | (132) | (157) | |||
| NOPAT | 111 | 134 | 158 | 188 | 222 | 263 | |||
| add depreciation | 63 | 87 | 114 | 142 | 166 | 197 | 233 | 276 | 327 |
| less capex | (472) | (635) | (268) | (91) | (108) | (155) | (216) | (294) | (393) |
| less working-capital build | — | (88) | (104) | (123) | (146) | (173) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (297) | (442) | (63) | — | 103 | 96 | 81 | 58 | 24 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 98 | 82 | 63 | 41 | 15 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 1,047, dividends at 18.1% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 177 | 213 | 252 | 299 | 354 | 420 |
| Interest at 9.1% on debt | (95) | (95) | (95) | (95) | (95) | |
| Profit before tax | 118 | 157 | 204 | 259 | 325 | |
| Profit after tax | 56 | 74 | 99 | 128 | 162 | 204 |
| Dividends | (10) | (13) | (18) | (23) | (29) | (37) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 64 | 94 | 112 | 111 | 80 | 8 |
| Working capital | 475 | 563 | 667 | 790 | 937 | 1,110 |
| Net block and other assets | 2,465 | 2,408 | 2,366 | 2,349 | 2,366 | 2,432 |
| Debt | 1,047 | 1,047 | 1,047 | 1,047 | 1,047 | 1,047 |
| Equity | 1,179 | 1,240 | 1,320 | 1,425 | 1,558 | 1,725 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 152 | 191 | 238 | 292 | 358 | |
| Investing (capex) | (108) | (155) | (216) | (294) | (393) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (13) | (18) | (23) | (29) | (37) | |
| Net change in cash | 30 | 18 | (2) | (31) | (72) | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 44 | 36 | 22 | (1) | (35) | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 18.5% | 10.5% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹(17) | (107.2)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.