Models
GREENPANEL INDUSTRIES LTDGREENPANELConsumer Durables
₹57per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹57implied FY24 P/E 4.9× · EV/EBITDA 3.8×
Against CMP ₹165.60−65.4%close of 2026-09-20
Growth the CMP implies17.8%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY29109%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹33₹106
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹149₹314
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY25–FY29 free cash flow | (81) |
| PV of terminal value | 1,012 |
| Enterprise value | 931 |
| less net debt | (228) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 703 |
| ÷ 12.26 crore shares | ₹57 |
109% of the value sits after FY29. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 61 | 69 | 79 | 91 | 106 |
| 10.50% | 52 | 59 | 67 | 77 | 89 |
| 11.00% | 45 | 51 | 57 | 65 | 75 |
| 11.50% | 39 | 44 | 49 | 56 | 64 |
| 12.00% | 33 | 37 | 42 | 48 | 54 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹165.60; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 37 · 58 · 81 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.79 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.58 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.02 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,021 | 1,625 | 1,783 | 1,567 | 1,489 | 1,414 | 1,344 | 1,277 | 1,213 |
| growth % | 16.4 | 59.2 | 9.7 | (12.1) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) |
| EBITDA | 203 | 430 | 423 | 246 | 234 | 222 | 211 | 200 | 190 |
| margin % | 19.9 | 26.5 | 23.7 | 15.7 | 15.7 | 15.7 | 15.7 | 15.7 | 15.7 |
| less depreciation | (69) | (73) | (72) | (73) | (70) | (66) | (63) | (60) | (57) |
| EBIT | 135 | 357 | 351 | 174 | 164 | 156 | 148 | 140 | 133 |
| less tax on EBIT | (38) | (36) | (34) | (33) | (31) | (29) | |||
| NOPAT | 135 | 128 | 121 | 115 | 109 | 104 | |||
| add depreciation | 69 | 73 | 72 | 73 | 70 | 66 | 63 | 60 | 57 |
| less capex | (21) | (35) | (81) | (347) | (331) | (255) | (187) | (125) | (68) |
| less working-capital build | — | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 134 | 331 | 257 | — | (127) | (62) | (3) | 50 | 97 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (120) | (53) | (3) | 35 | 61 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 268, dividends at 12.9% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 174 | 164 | 156 | 148 | 140 | 133 |
| Interest at 5.4% on debt | (14) | (14) | (14) | (14) | (14) | |
| Profit before tax | 149 | 141 | 133 | 126 | 119 | |
| Profit after tax | 143 | 116 | 110 | 104 | 98 | 93 |
| Dividends | (18) | (15) | (14) | (13) | (13) | (12) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 40 | (113) | (201) | (229) | (203) | (129) |
| Working capital | 121 | 115 | 109 | 104 | 99 | 94 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,730 | 1,990 | 2,179 | 2,303 | 2,368 | 2,379 |
| Debt | 268 | 268 | 268 | 268 | 268 | 268 |
| Equity | 1,317 | 1,418 | 1,514 | 1,605 | 1,690 | 1,771 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 192 | 182 | 172 | 163 | 155 | |
| Investing (capex) | (331) | (255) | (187) | (125) | (68) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (15) | (14) | (13) | (13) | (12) | |
| Net change in cash | (153) | (87) | (28) | 26 | 74 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (138) | (73) | (15) | 38 | 86 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY24 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -5% | 15.7% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹57 | (65.4)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.