Models
GRP LIMITEDGRPLTDIndustrial Products
₹-291per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹(291)implied FY26 P/E (27.4)× · EV/EBITDA 1.3×
Against CMP ₹1,818.00−116.0%close of 9 Oct 2026
Growth the CMP implies—%no growth rate between −20% and 45% a year brings the value to the CMP on your other inputs
Value after FY31139%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹(329)₹(213)
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹1,500₹2,300
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | (20) |
| PV of terminal value | 71 |
| Enterprise value | 51 |
| less net debt | (206) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | (155) |
| ÷ 0.53 crore shares | ₹(291) |
139% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | (286) | (273) | (257) | (237) | (213) |
| 10.50% | (299) | (288) | (275) | (260) | (241) |
| 11.00% | (311) | (302) | (291) | (278) | (263) |
| 11.50% | (321) | (313) | (304) | (293) | (281) |
| 12.00% | (329) | (323) | (315) | (306) | (295) |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,818.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | (331) · (290) · (245) |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.87 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.47 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.02 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 451 | 461 | 550 | 535 | 522 | 509 | 496 | 484 | 472 |
| growth % | 16.1 | 2.3 | 19.3 | (2.7) | (2.5) | (2.5) | (2.5) | (2.5) | (2.5) |
| EBITDA | 25 | 48 | 68 | 39 | 38 | 37 | 36 | 35 | 34 |
| margin % | 5.5 | 10.5 | 12.4 | 7.3 | 7.3 | 7.3 | 7.3 | 7.3 | 7.3 |
| less depreciation | (13) | (12) | (16) | (19) | (18) | (18) | (17) | (17) | (17) |
| EBIT | 12 | 36 | 52 | 20 | 20 | 19 | 19 | 18 | 18 |
| less tax on EBIT | (12) | (12) | (12) | (11) | (11) | (11) | |||
| NOPAT | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | |||
| add depreciation | 13 | 12 | 16 | 19 | 18 | 18 | 17 | 17 | 17 |
| less capex | (30) | (57) | (66) | (46) | (45) | (38) | (32) | (26) | (20) |
| less working-capital build | — | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (5) | (30) | (21) | — | (15) | (9) | (4) | 2 | 7 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (15) | (8) | (3) | 1 | 4 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 206, dividends at 100% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 20 | 20 | 19 | 19 | 18 | 18 |
| Interest at 8.4% on debt | (17) | (17) | (17) | (17) | (17) | |
| Profit before tax | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Profit after tax | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Dividends | (8) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (0) | (0) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 0 | (23) | (40) | (51) | (57) | (57) |
| Working capital | 132 | 129 | 126 | 123 | 120 | 117 |
| Net block and other assets | 329 | 355 | 376 | 390 | 399 | 402 |
| Debt | 206 | 206 | 206 | 206 | 206 | 206 |
| Equity | 178 | 178 | 178 | 178 | 178 | 178 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 23 | 22 | 21 | 20 | 20 | |
| Investing (capex) | (45) | (38) | (32) | (26) | (20) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (0) | (0) | |
| Net change in cash | (23) | (17) | (11) | (6) | (0) | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (22) | (16) | (11) | (5) | (0) | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -2.5% | 7.3% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹(291) | (116.0)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.