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Model Note · GUJ STATE FERT & CHEM LTD · 11 September 2026Page 1 of 2
Model Note
Prepared by the reader · not a MarketPing document
GUJ STATE FERT & CHEM LTD Discounted cash flow · base FY26
GUJ STATE FERT & CHEM LTD
Value per share, this model₹(9)
CMP 2026-09-10₹156.05
Difference(106.1)%
Growth the CMP implies45.0%/yr
This note states the assumptions and the arithmetic of one model of GUJ STATE FERT & CHEM LTD, built on its filed FY26 consolidated statements. The value is the outcome of the assumptions below and nothing else; it is not a fair value, a target or a recommendation.
Assumptions
Input
This model
Filed reference
Revenue growth, 5 years
15% a year
FY26 14.8% · 5-yr CAGR 7.5%
EBITDA margin
7.2%
FY26 7.2% · 5-yr average 9.6%
Depreciation · capex, % of revenue
1.8% · 2.8%, fading to 1.2× depreciation
FY26 1.8% · 2.8%
Working capital, % of added revenue · tax
30.4% · 22.1%
111 working-capital days · effective 22.1%
Discount rate
11.00%
1-yr beta 1.17
After FY31
5% flat · mid-year discounting
—
Net debt · non-controlling interest · non-operating investments
₹(167) · ₹0 · ₹0 cr
FY26 net debt ₹(167) cr
Shares
39.85 crore
39.85 crore today
Source: SEBI results XBRL as filed with BSE/NSE, exchange prices; the reader's assumptions.
Projected cash flow to the firm
₹ crore
FY26
FY27
FY28
FY29
FY30
FY31
Revenue
10,946
12,587
14,475
16,647
19,144
22,015
growth %
14.8
15.0
15.0
15.0
15.0
15.0
EBITDA
790
906
1,042
1,199
1,378
1,585
Depreciation
(202)
(227)
(261)
(300)
(345)
(396)
NOPAT
458
529
609
700
805
926
less capex
(308)
(352)
(382)
(413)
(444)
(476)
less working-capital build
—
(499)
(574)
(660)
(759)
(873)
Free cash flow to firm
—
(95)
(87)
(73)
(53)
(26)
Present value
(91)
(74)
(56)
(37)
(16)
Source: the model; base year as filed.
Every figure is the reader's model over filed numbers · No rating, target or fair value is expressedmarketping.in
Model Note · GUJ STATE FERT & CHEM LTD · 11 September 2026Page 2 of 2
From enterprise to equity
PV of the 5 explicit years
(274)
PV of the terminal value (—% of EV)
(271)
Enterprise value
(546)
less net debt
167
less non-controlling interest
0
add non-operating investments
0
Equity value
(379)
÷ 39.85 crore shares
₹(9)
Source: the model.
Sensitivity, ₹ per share
WACC ↓ · terminal growth →
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
10.0%
(10)
(11)
(11)
(12)
(14)
10.5%
(9)
(10)
(10)
(11)
(12)
11.0%
(8)
(9)
(9)
(10)
(11)
11.5%
(8)
(8)
(9)
(9)
(10)
12.0%
(7)
(8)
(8)
(9)
(9)
Source: the model; n/a where terminal growth reaches the discount rate.
Statement
This note is the reader's own model over publicly filed information: SEBI results XBRL filed with BSE and NSE and exchange price data, assembled by MarketPing software; every assumption above is the reader's. It contains no research recommendation, no price target and no opinion by MarketPing on the merits of any security, and is not a research report within the meaning of the SEBI (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014, Regulation 2(1)(w)(vii). Historical per-share figures are on the current share count. Where a figure is unavailable the table shows a dash rather than an estimate. Nothing here constitutes investment advice, an offer or a solicitation.
Every figure is the reader's model over filed numbers · No rating, target or fair value is expressedmarketping.in
