Models
GUJARAT INTRUX LTD.BSE 517372Industrial Products
₹400per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹400implied FY26 P/E 11.3× · EV/EBITDA 9.5×
Against CMP ₹451.90−11.5%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3175%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹314₹571
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹398₹482
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 33 |
| PV of terminal value | 100 |
| Enterprise value | 132 |
| less net debt | 5 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 137 |
| ÷ 0.34 crore shares | ₹400 |
75% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 413 | 441 | 476 | 518 | 571 |
| 10.50% | 382 | 406 | 435 | 469 | 510 |
| 11.00% | 356 | 376 | 400 | 428 | 461 |
| 11.50% | 334 | 351 | 371 | 394 | 421 |
| 12.00% | 314 | 329 | 345 | 365 | 388 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹451.90; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 334 · 397 · 474 |
| Draws below the CMP | 83% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.73 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.64 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.05 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 51 | 57 | 65 | 69 | 72 | 76 | 80 | 84 | 88 |
| growth % | 21.1 | 11.2 | 14.2 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 |
| EBITDA | 8 | 10 | 14 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
| margin % | 16.2 | 17.7 | 21.2 | 20.3 | 20.3 | 20.3 | 20.3 | 20.3 | 20.3 |
| less depreciation | (2) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) |
| EBIT | 7 | 9 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
| less tax on EBIT | (3) | (3) | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) | |||
| NOPAT | 9 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 12 | |||
| add depreciation | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| less capex | (1) | (0) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) |
| less working-capital build | — | (1) | (1) | (2) | (2) | (2) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (1) | 1 | 4 | — | 7 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 100% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 13 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 13 | 14 | 14 | 15 | 16 | |
| Profit after tax | 10 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 12 |
| Dividends | (11) | (10) | (10) | (11) | (11) | (12) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 5 | 3 | 1 | (1) | (3) | (5) |
| Working capital | 27 | 29 | 30 | 32 | 33 | 35 |
| Net block and other assets | 40 | 41 | 41 | 42 | 42 | 43 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 66 | 66 | 66 | 66 | 66 | 66 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 10 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 12 | |
| Investing (capex) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (10) | (10) | (11) | (11) | (12) | |
| Net change in cash | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 7 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 10 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 5% | 20.3% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹400 | (11.5)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.