₹211per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹211implied FY26 P/E 4.0× · EV/EBITDA 3.8×
Against CMP ₹1,574.00−86.6%close of 8 Oct 2026
Growth the CMP implies—%no growth rate between −20% and 45% a year brings the value to the CMP on your other inputs
Value after FY31104%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹38₹560
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹1,091₹1,774
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | (8) |
| PV of terminal value | 180 |
| Enterprise value | 172 |
| less net debt | (108) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 64 |
| ÷ 0.30 crore shares | ₹211 |
104% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 234 | 294 | 365 | 451 | 560 |
| 10.50% | 173 | 223 | 281 | 351 | 436 |
| 11.00% | 121 | 163 | 211 | 268 | 337 |
| 11.50% | 77 | 112 | 153 | 200 | 256 |
| 12.00% | 38 | 68 | 103 | 142 | 189 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,574.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 62 · 213 · 384 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.80 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.58 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.02 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 316 | 306 | 345 | 334 | 324 | 314 | 305 | 296 | 287 |
| growth % | (9.8) | (3.0) | 12.7 | (3.2) | (3.0) | (3.0) | (3.0) | (3.0) | (3.0) |
| EBITDA | 31 | 31 | 45 | 45 | 43 | 42 | 41 | 40 | 38 |
| margin % | 9.9 | 10.2 | 13.1 | 13.4 | 13.4 | 13.4 | 13.4 | 13.4 | 13.4 |
| less depreciation | (11) | (15) | (15) | (15) | (15) | (14) | (14) | (14) | (13) |
| EBIT | 20 | 16 | 30 | 29 | 28 | 28 | 27 | 26 | 25 |
| less tax on EBIT | (9) | (8) | (8) | (8) | (8) | (7) | |||
| NOPAT | 21 | 20 | 20 | 19 | 18 | 18 | |||
| add depreciation | 11 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 13 |
| less capex | (49) | (21) | (15) | (58) | (56) | (45) | (35) | (25) | (16) |
| less working-capital build | — | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (34) | 3 | 19 | — | (19) | (9) | 0 | 9 | 17 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (18) | (8) | 0 | 6 | 11 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 109, dividends at 2.6% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 29 | 28 | 28 | 27 | 26 | 25 |
| Interest at 6.7% on debt | (7) | (7) | (7) | (7) | (7) | |
| Profit before tax | 21 | 20 | 20 | 19 | 18 | |
| Profit after tax | 17 | 15 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 13 |
| Dividends | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 1 | (23) | (37) | (42) | (39) | (27) |
| Working capital | 80 | 77 | 75 | 73 | 71 | 68 |
| Net block and other assets | 373 | 415 | 445 | 466 | 477 | 480 |
| Debt | 109 | 109 | 109 | 109 | 109 | 109 |
| Equity | 230 | 244 | 258 | 272 | 284 | 297 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 32 | 31 | 30 | 29 | 28 | |
| Investing (capex) | (56) | (45) | (35) | (25) | (16) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | |
| Net change in cash | (24) | (14) | (5) | 4 | 12 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (24) | (14) | (5) | 4 | 12 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -3% | 13.4% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹211 | (86.6)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.