Models
HARRISON MALAYALAM LTDHARRMALAYAIndustrial Products
₹84per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹84implied FY26 P/E 5.7× · EV/EBITDA 10.4×
Against CMP ₹185.11−54.8%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies17.6%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3184%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹49₹153
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹154₹238
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 42 |
| PV of terminal value | 217 |
| Enterprise value | 259 |
| less net debt | (105) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 154 |
| ÷ 1.85 crore shares | ₹84 |
84% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 89 | 100 | 114 | 132 | 153 |
| 10.50% | 76 | 86 | 98 | 111 | 128 |
| 11.00% | 66 | 74 | 84 | 95 | 109 |
| 11.50% | 57 | 64 | 72 | 81 | 92 |
| 12.00% | 49 | 55 | 62 | 70 | 79 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹185.11; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 54 · 82 · 117 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.74 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.58 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.23 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 487 | 488 | 514 | 539 | 566 | 594 | 624 | 655 | 688 |
| growth % | 3.2 | 0.3 | 5.3 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 |
| EBITDA | 27 | 3 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 29 | 30 | 32 |
| margin % | 5.6 | 0.6 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 4.6 |
| less depreciation | (4) | (6) | (7) | (7) | (7) | (8) | (8) | (9) | (9) |
| EBIT | 23 | (3) | 16 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 |
| less tax on EBIT | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| NOPAT | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | |||
| add depreciation | 4 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 |
| less capex | (28) | (22) | (17) | (21) | (23) | (20) | (17) | (14) | (11) |
| less working-capital build | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 5 | 11 | 6 | — | 3 | 7 | 11 | 16 | 21 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 3 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 13 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 108, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 |
| Interest at 12.2% on debt | (13) | (13) | (13) | (13) | (13) | |
| Profit before tax | 6 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 10 | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 10 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 3 | (7) | (13) | (14) | (12) | (4) |
| Working capital | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) |
| Net block and other assets | 499 | 515 | 527 | 536 | 542 | 544 |
| Debt | 108 | 108 | 108 | 108 | 108 | 108 |
| Equity | 179 | 184 | 191 | 198 | 207 | 216 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 13 | 14 | 16 | 17 | 19 | |
| Investing (capex) | (23) | (20) | (17) | (14) | (11) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | (10) | (6) | (2) | 3 | 8 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (10) | (6) | (2) | 3 | 8 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 5% | 4.6% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹84 | (54.8)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.