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Model Note · HINDALCO INDUSTRIES LTD · 11 September 2026Page 1 of 2
Model Note
Prepared by the reader · not a MarketPing document
HINDALCO INDUSTRIES LTD Discounted cash flow · base FY26
HINDALCO INDUSTRIES LTD
Value per share, this model₹196
CMP 2026-09-10₹981.50
Difference(80.0)%
Growth the CMP implies45.0%/yr
This note states the assumptions and the arithmetic of one model of HINDALCO INDUSTRIES LTD, built on its filed FY26 consolidated statements. The value is the outcome of the assumptions below and nothing else; it is not a fair value, a target or a recommendation.
Assumptions
Input
This model
Filed reference
Revenue growth, 5 years
15.5% a year
FY26 15.3% · 5-yr CAGR —%
EBITDA margin
10.2%
FY26 10.2% · 5-yr average 11.8%
Depreciation · capex, % of revenue
3.2% · 10.9%, fading to 1.2× depreciation
FY26 3.2% · 10.9%
Working capital, % of added revenue · tax
15% · 27.6%
55 working-capital days · effective 27.6%
Discount rate
11.00%
1-yr beta 0.77
After FY31
5% flat · mid-year discounting
—
Net debt · non-controlling interest · non-operating investments
₹82,309 · ₹0 · ₹0 cr
FY26 net debt ₹82,309 cr
Shares
222.00 crore
222.00 crore today
Source: SEBI results XBRL as filed with BSE/NSE, exchange prices; the reader's assumptions.
Projected cash flow to the firm
₹ crore
FY26
FY27
FY28
FY29
FY30
FY31
Revenue
2,74,944
3,17,560
3,66,782
4,23,633
4,89,297
5,65,138
growth %
15.3
15.5
15.5
15.5
15.5
15.5
EBITDA
27,921
32,391
37,412
43,211
49,908
57,644
Depreciation
(8,830)
(10,162)
(11,737)
(13,556)
(15,657)
(18,084)
NOPAT
13,822
16,094
18,589
21,470
24,798
28,641
less capex
(30,096)
(34,614)
(33,506)
(31,222)
(27,425)
(21,701)
less working-capital build
—
(6,392)
(7,383)
(8,528)
(9,849)
(11,376)
Free cash flow to firm
—
(14,751)
(10,563)
(4,723)
3,180
13,648
Present value
(14,001)
(9,033)
(3,639)
2,207
8,533
Source: the model; base year as filed.
Every figure is the reader's model over filed numbers · No rating, target or fair value is expressedmarketping.in
Model Note · HINDALCO INDUSTRIES LTD · 11 September 2026Page 2 of 2
From enterprise to equity
PV of the 5 explicit years
(15,931)
PV of the terminal value (113% of EV)
1,41,741
Enterprise value
1,25,810
less net debt
(82,309)
less non-controlling interest
0
add non-operating investments
0
Equity value
43,501
÷ 222.00 crore shares
₹196
Source: the model.
Sensitivity, ₹ per share
WACC ↓ · terminal growth →
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
10.0%
220
283
360
453
570
10.5%
155
208
270
345
437
11.0%
100
144
196
257
331
11.5%
52
90
133
184
245
12.0%
10
43
80
123
173
Source: the model; n/a where terminal growth reaches the discount rate.
Statement
This note is the reader's own model over publicly filed information: SEBI results XBRL filed with BSE and NSE and exchange price data, assembled by MarketPing software; every assumption above is the reader's. It contains no research recommendation, no price target and no opinion by MarketPing on the merits of any security, and is not a research report within the meaning of the SEBI (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014, Regulation 2(1)(w)(vii). Historical per-share figures are on the current share count. Where a figure is unavailable the table shows a dash rather than an estimate. Nothing here constitutes investment advice, an offer or a solicitation.
Every figure is the reader's model over filed numbers · No rating, target or fair value is expressedmarketping.in
