Models
HINDUSTAN ADHESIVES LTD.HINDADHIndustrial Products
₹4per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹4implied FY25 P/E 0.1× · EV/EBITDA 3.0×
Against CMP ₹370.75−98.9%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY30137%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹(74)₹162
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY26–FY30 free cash flow | (37) |
| PV of terminal value | 138 |
| Enterprise value | 101 |
| less net debt | (99) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 2 |
| ÷ 0.51 crore shares | ₹4 |
137% of the value sits after FY30. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 14 | 41 | 73 | 112 | 162 |
| 10.50% | (14) | 9 | 35 | 67 | 106 |
| 11.00% | (37) | (18) | 4 | 30 | 61 |
| 11.50% | (57) | (41) | (22) | (1) | 25 |
| 12.00% | (74) | (60) | (45) | (27) | (5) |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹370.75; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | (60) · 4 · 79 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.78 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.60 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.02 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 322 | 304 | 285 | 271 | 257 | 244 | 232 | 220 |
| growth % | — | (5.4) | (6.4) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) |
| EBITDA | 20 | 33 | 34 | 32 | 31 | 29 | 28 | 26 |
| margin % | 6.3 | 10.8 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 12.0 |
| less depreciation | (11) | (9) | (11) | (11) | (10) | (10) | (9) | (9) |
| EBIT | 9 | 24 | 23 | 22 | 21 | 20 | 19 | 18 |
| less tax on EBIT | (7) | (6) | (6) | (6) | (5) | (5) | ||
| NOPAT | 17 | 16 | 15 | 14 | 13 | 13 | ||
| add depreciation | 11 | 9 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 |
| less capex | (8) | (11) | (62) | (59) | (45) | (32) | (21) | (10) |
| less working-capital build | — | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | ||
| Free cash flow to firm | 19 | 2 | — | (30) | (17) | (6) | 4 | 13 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |||
| Present value | (28) | (15) | (5) | 3 | 8 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 106, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 23 | 22 | 21 | 20 | 19 | 18 |
| Interest at 7.1% on debt | (7) | (7) | (7) | (7) | (7) | |
| Profit before tax | 14 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 10 | |
| Profit after tax | 15 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 7 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 6 | (29) | (52) | (64) | (65) | (57) |
| Working capital | 54 | 52 | 49 | 47 | 44 | 42 |
| Net block and other assets | 198 | 246 | 281 | 304 | 316 | 318 |
| Debt | 106 | 106 | 106 | 106 | 106 | 106 |
| Equity | 91 | 101 | 111 | 120 | 128 | 135 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | 0 | 0 | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 24 | 22 | 21 | 19 | 18 | |
| Investing (capex) | (59) | (45) | (32) | (21) | (10) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | (35) | (23) | (12) | (1) | 8 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (35) | (23) | (12) | (1) | 8 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY25 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -5% | 12% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹4 | (98.9)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.