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Model Note · HINDUSTAN CONSTRUCTION CO · 11 September 2026Page 1 of 2
Model Note
Prepared by the reader · not a MarketPing document
HINDUSTAN CONSTRUCTION CO Discounted cash flow · base FY26
HINDUSTAN CONSTRUCTION CO
Value per share, this model₹16
CMP 2026-09-10₹22.76
Difference(28.5)%
Growth the CMP implies3.3%/yr
This note states the assumptions and the arithmetic of one model of HINDUSTAN CONSTRUCTION CO, built on its filed FY26 consolidated statements. The value is the outcome of the assumptions below and nothing else; it is not a fair value, a target or a recommendation.
Assumptions
Input
This model
Filed reference
Revenue growth, 5 years
-5% a year
FY26 (29.2)% · 5-yr CAGR (13.6)%
EBITDA margin
15.2%
FY26 15.2% · 5-yr average 16.5%
Depreciation · capex, % of revenue
0.7% · 2%, fading to 1.2× depreciation
FY26 0.7% · 2.0%
Working capital, % of added revenue · tax
9% · 26.4%
33 working-capital days · effective 26.4%
Discount rate
11.00%
1-yr beta 1.81
After FY31
5% flat · mid-year discounting
—
Net debt · non-controlling interest · non-operating investments
₹638 · ₹0 · ₹0 cr
FY26 net debt ₹638 cr
Shares
261.95 crore
261.95 crore today
Source: SEBI results XBRL as filed with BSE/NSE, exchange prices; the reader's assumptions.
Projected cash flow to the firm
₹ crore
FY26
FY27
FY28
FY29
FY30
FY31
Revenue
3,970
3,771
3,583
3,403
3,233
3,072
growth %
(29.2)
(5.0)
(5.0)
(5.0)
(5.0)
(5.0)
EBITDA
603
573
545
517
491
467
Depreciation
(27)
(26)
(25)
(24)
(23)
(22)
NOPAT
424
402
382
363
345
328
less capex
(81)
(75)
(61)
(48)
(37)
(26)
less working-capital build
—
18
17
16
15
15
Free cash flow to firm
—
371
363
355
346
338
Present value
352
310
273
240
211
Source: the model; base year as filed.
Every figure is the reader's model over filed numbers · No rating, target or fair value is expressedmarketping.in
Model Note · HINDUSTAN CONSTRUCTION CO · 11 September 2026Page 2 of 2
From enterprise to equity
PV of the 5 explicit years
1,388
PV of the terminal value (72% of EV)
3,511
Enterprise value
4,899
less net debt
(638)
less non-controlling interest
0
add non-operating investments
0
Equity value
4,261
÷ 261.95 crore shares
₹16
Source: the model.
Sensitivity, ₹ per share
WACC ↓ · terminal growth →
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
10.0%
17
18
20
22
24
10.5%
15
17
18
19
21
11.0%
14
15
16
18
19
11.5%
13
14
15
16
17
12.0%
12
13
14
15
16
Source: the model; n/a where terminal growth reaches the discount rate.
Statement
This note is the reader's own model over publicly filed information: SEBI results XBRL filed with BSE and NSE and exchange price data, assembled by MarketPing software; every assumption above is the reader's. It contains no research recommendation, no price target and no opinion by MarketPing on the merits of any security, and is not a research report within the meaning of the SEBI (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014, Regulation 2(1)(w)(vii). Historical per-share figures are on the current share count. Where a figure is unavailable the table shows a dash rather than an estimate. Nothing here constitutes investment advice, an offer or a solicitation.
Every figure is the reader's model over filed numbers · No rating, target or fair value is expressedmarketping.in
