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Model Note · HINDUSTAN PETROLEUM CORP · 11 September 2026Page 1 of 2
Model Note
Prepared by the reader · not a MarketPing document
HINDUSTAN PETROLEUM CORP Discounted cash flow · base FY26
HINDUSTAN PETROLEUM CORP
Value per share, this model₹944
CMP 2026-09-10₹352.00
Difference168.1%
Growth the CMP implies(17.1)%/yr
This note states the assumptions and the arithmetic of one model of HINDUSTAN PETROLEUM CORP, built on its filed FY26 consolidated statements. The value is the outcome of the assumptions below and nothing else; it is not a fair value, a target or a recommendation.
Assumptions
Input
This model
Filed reference
Revenue growth, 5 years
2.5% a year
FY26 2.6% · 5-yr CAGR 12.1%
EBITDA margin
6.4%
FY26 6.4% · 5-yr average 3.3%
Depreciation · capex, % of revenue
1.5% · 1.7%, fading to 1.2× depreciation
FY26 1.5% · 1.7%
Working capital, % of added revenue · tax
3.3% · 25.2%
12 working-capital days · effective 25.2%
Discount rate
11.00%
1-yr beta 1.59
After FY31
5% flat · mid-year discounting
—
Net debt · non-controlling interest · non-operating investments
₹50,775 · ₹0 · ₹0 cr
FY26 net debt ₹50,775 cr
Shares
212.78 crore
212.78 crore today
Source: SEBI results XBRL as filed with BSE/NSE, exchange prices; the reader's assumptions.
Projected cash flow to the firm
₹ crore
FY26
FY27
FY28
FY29
FY30
FY31
Revenue
4,78,866
4,90,838
5,03,109
5,15,686
5,28,578
5,41,793
growth %
2.6
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
EBITDA
30,633
31,414
32,199
33,004
33,829
34,675
Depreciation
(7,347)
(7,363)
(7,547)
(7,735)
(7,929)
(8,127)
NOPAT
17,417
17,990
18,440
18,901
19,373
19,858
less capex
(8,331)
(8,344)
(8,679)
(9,025)
(9,382)
(9,752)
less working-capital build
—
(395)
(405)
(415)
(425)
(436)
Free cash flow to firm
—
16,613
16,903
17,197
17,494
17,796
Present value
15,769
14,454
13,248
12,141
11,127
Source: the model; base year as filed.
Every figure is the reader's model over filed numbers · No rating, target or fair value is expressedmarketping.in
Model Note · HINDUSTAN PETROLEUM CORP · 11 September 2026Page 2 of 2
From enterprise to equity
PV of the 5 explicit years
66,738
PV of the terminal value (73% of EV)
1,84,822
Enterprise value
2,51,561
less net debt
(50,775)
less non-controlling interest
0
add non-operating investments
0
Equity value
2,00,786
÷ 212.78 crore shares
₹944
Source: the model.
Sensitivity, ₹ per share
WACC ↓ · terminal growth →
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
10.0%
982
1,068
1,172
1,299
1,458
10.5%
891
963
1,048
1,150
1,274
11.0%
812
873
944
1,027
1,127
11.5%
745
796
856
925
1,007
12.0%
686
730
780
839
907
Source: the model; n/a where terminal growth reaches the discount rate.
Statement
This note is the reader's own model over publicly filed information: SEBI results XBRL filed with BSE and NSE and exchange price data, assembled by MarketPing software; every assumption above is the reader's. It contains no research recommendation, no price target and no opinion by MarketPing on the merits of any security, and is not a research report within the meaning of the SEBI (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014, Regulation 2(1)(w)(vii). Historical per-share figures are on the current share count. Where a figure is unavailable the table shows a dash rather than an estimate. Nothing here constitutes investment advice, an offer or a solicitation.
Every figure is the reader's model over filed numbers · No rating, target or fair value is expressedmarketping.in
