Models
IFB AGRO INDUSTRIES LTDIFBAGRO
₹125per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹125implied FY26 P/E 2.0× · EV/EBITDA 0.1×
Against CMP ₹851.95−85.3%close of 9 Oct 2026
Growth the CMP implies—%no growth rate between −20% and 45% a year brings the value to the CMP on your other inputs
Value after FY31-211%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹106₹134
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹679₹1,790
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 47 |
| PV of terminal value | (32) |
| Enterprise value | 15 |
| less net debt | 102 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 117 |
| ÷ 0.94 crore shares | ₹125 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 124 | 121 | 117 | 112 | 106 |
| 10.50% | 127 | 125 | 121 | 117 | 112 |
| 11.00% | 130 | 128 | 125 | 122 | 118 |
| 11.50% | 132 | 130 | 128 | 125 | 122 |
| 12.00% | 134 | 132 | 130 | 128 | 125 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹851.95; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | (382) · 127 · 487 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.75 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.65 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | +0.02 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,571 | 1,380 | 1,538 | 1,912 | 2,370 | 2,939 | 3,645 | 4,519 | 5,604 |
| growth % | (31.1) | (12.2) | 11.5 | 24.2 | 24.0 | 24.0 | 24.0 | 24.0 | 24.0 |
| EBITDA | 73 | (10) | 37 | 100 | 123 | 153 | 190 | 235 | 291 |
| margin % | 4.6 | (0.8) | 2.4 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 |
| less depreciation | (19) | (21) | (19) | (35) | (43) | (53) | (66) | (81) | (101) |
| EBIT | 54 | (32) | 18 | 65 | 81 | 100 | 124 | 154 | 191 |
| less tax on EBIT | (20) | (24) | (30) | (37) | (46) | (57) | |||
| NOPAT | 46 | 56 | 70 | 87 | 107 | 133 | |||
| add depreciation | 19 | 21 | 19 | 35 | 43 | 53 | 66 | 81 | 101 |
| less capex | (14) | (32) | (26) | (24) | (31) | (45) | (63) | (88) | (121) |
| less working-capital build | — | (49) | (61) | (75) | (94) | (116) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 18 | (64) | 43 | — | 19 | 17 | 14 | 7 | (3) |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 18 | 15 | 11 | 5 | (2) |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 74, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 65 | 81 | 100 | 124 | 154 | 191 |
| Interest at 11.7% on debt | (9) | (9) | (9) | (9) | (9) | |
| Profit before tax | 72 | 91 | 115 | 145 | 182 | |
| Profit after tax | 56 | 50 | 64 | 81 | 101 | 127 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 176 | 189 | 200 | 208 | 209 | 200 |
| Working capital | 204 | 253 | 314 | 389 | 483 | 599 |
| Net block and other assets | 493 | 481 | 473 | 470 | 477 | 497 |
| Debt | 74 | 74 | 74 | 74 | 74 | 74 |
| Equity | 673 | 724 | 787 | 868 | 969 | 1,097 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 44 | 56 | 71 | 89 | 112 | |
| Investing (capex) | (31) | (45) | (63) | (88) | (121) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 13 | 11 | 8 | 1 | (9) | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 13 | 11 | 8 | 1 | (9) | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 24% | 5.2% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹125 | (85.3)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.