Models
INDIAN HUME PIPE CO. LTD.INDIANHUMEConstruction
₹226per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹226implied FY26 P/E 8.3× · EV/EBITDA 7.4×
Against CMP ₹362.50−37.6%close of 2026-09-21
Growth the CMP implies10.6%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3179%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹157₹365
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹280₹432
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 329 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,235 |
| Enterprise value | 1,564 |
| less net debt | (373) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,191 |
| ÷ 5.27 crore shares | ₹226 |
79% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 236 | 260 | 288 | 322 | 365 |
| 10.50% | 212 | 231 | 254 | 282 | 315 |
| 11.00% | 191 | 207 | 226 | 249 | 276 |
| 11.50% | 173 | 186 | 203 | 221 | 243 |
| 12.00% | 157 | 169 | 182 | 198 | 216 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹362.50; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 180 · 226 · 283 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.74 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.65 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.03 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,543 | 1,389 | 1,491 | 1,306 | 1,240 | 1,178 | 1,119 | 1,063 | 1,010 |
| growth % | 1.5 | (10.0) | 7.4 | (12.5) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) |
| EBITDA | 134 | 173 | 731 | 210 | 200 | 190 | 180 | 171 | 163 |
| margin % | 8.7 | 12.4 | 49.0 | 16.1 | 16.1 | 16.1 | 16.1 | 16.1 | 16.1 |
| less depreciation | (16) | (14) | (15) | (20) | (19) | (18) | (17) | (16) | (15) |
| EBIT | 119 | 159 | 717 | 190 | 181 | 172 | 163 | 155 | 147 |
| less tax on EBIT | (47) | (45) | (43) | (41) | (39) | (37) | |||
| NOPAT | 143 | 136 | 129 | 123 | 117 | 111 | |||
| add depreciation | 16 | 14 | 15 | 20 | 19 | 18 | 17 | 16 | 15 |
| less capex | (2) | (5) | (55) | (121) | (115) | (87) | (62) | (39) | (18) |
| less working-capital build | — | 14 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 11 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 17 | 208 | 149 | — | 53 | 72 | 90 | 105 | 119 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 50 | 62 | 69 | 73 | 74 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 411, dividends at 21.6% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 190 | 181 | 172 | 163 | 155 | 147 |
| Interest at 11% on debt | (45) | (45) | (45) | (45) | (45) | |
| Profit before tax | 136 | 127 | 118 | 110 | 102 | |
| Profit after tax | 141 | 102 | 95 | 89 | 83 | 77 |
| Dividends | (31) | (22) | (21) | (19) | (18) | (17) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 38 | 35 | 53 | 89 | 143 | 211 |
| Working capital | 272 | 259 | 246 | 233 | 222 | 211 |
| Net block and other assets | 2,494 | 2,591 | 2,660 | 2,706 | 2,729 | 2,732 |
| Debt | 411 | 411 | 411 | 411 | 411 | 411 |
| Equity | 1,484 | 1,564 | 1,639 | 1,709 | 1,774 | 1,834 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 134 | 126 | 118 | 110 | 103 | |
| Investing (capex) | (115) | (87) | (62) | (39) | (18) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (22) | (21) | (19) | (18) | (17) | |
| Net change in cash | (3) | 18 | 37 | 53 | 68 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 19 | 38 | 56 | 71 | 85 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -5% | 16.1% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹226 | (37.6)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.