Models
INDRAYANI BIOTECH LTD.BSE 526445Agricultural Food & other Products
₹92per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹92implied FY26 P/E 247.6× · EV/EBITDA 56.2×
Against CMP ₹8.90+929.4%close of 2026-09-20
Growth the CMP implies(20.0)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3176%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹65₹145
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹6₹16
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 130 |
| PV of terminal value | 412 |
| Enterprise value | 541 |
| less net debt | (124) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 417 |
| ÷ 4.55 crore shares | ₹92 |
76% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 96 | 105 | 115 | 129 | 145 |
| 10.50% | 86 | 94 | 102 | 113 | 126 |
| 11.00% | 78 | 84 | 92 | 100 | 111 |
| 11.50% | 71 | 76 | 83 | 90 | 98 |
| 12.00% | 65 | 69 | 75 | 81 | 88 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹8.90; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 63 · 91 · 122 |
| Draws below the CMP | 0% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.86 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.46 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.08 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 163 | 166 | 130 | 138 | 146 | 155 | 164 | 174 | 184 |
| growth % | 164.6 | 2.0 | (21.7) | 5.8 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 |
| EBITDA | 17 | 23 | 6 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
| margin % | 10.3 | 14.1 | 4.8 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 |
| less depreciation | (3) | (4) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (5) | (5) | (5) | (6) |
| EBIT | 13 | 20 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 |
| less tax on EBIT | 29 | 32 | 33 | 35 | 38 | 40 | |||
| NOPAT | 35 | 37 | 39 | 42 | 44 | 47 | |||
| add depreciation | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 |
| less capex | (18) | (16) | (1) | (8) | (8) | (8) | (8) | (7) | (7) |
| less working-capital build | — | (5) | (5) | (6) | (6) | (6) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (2) | (47) | (8) | — | 29 | 31 | 34 | 37 | 40 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 27 | 26 | 26 | 25 | 25 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 128, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 |
| Interest at 7.2% on debt | (9) | (9) | (9) | (9) | (9) | |
| Profit before tax | (4) | (3) | (3) | (2) | (2) | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | (23) | (21) | (19) | (16) | (13) |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 4 | (28) | (57) | (84) | (108) | (128) |
| Working capital | 82 | 87 | 92 | 98 | 104 | 110 |
| Net block and other assets | 167 | 171 | 174 | 177 | 178 | 180 |
| Debt | 128 | 128 | 128 | 128 | 128 | 128 |
| Equity | 102 | 79 | 58 | 40 | 23 | 10 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | (24) | (21) | (19) | (17) | (14) | |
| Investing (capex) | (8) | (8) | (8) | (7) | (7) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | (32) | (29) | (27) | (24) | (21) | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (32) | (29) | (27) | (24) | (21) | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 6% | 7% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹92 | 929.4% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.