Models
INNOVISION LIMITEDINNOVISIONTransport Infrastructure
₹222per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹222implied FY26 P/E —× · EV/EBITDA 10.9×
Against CMP ₹254.25−12.6%close of 2026-09-20
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3176%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹165₹336
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹246₹470
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 144 |
| PV of terminal value | 458 |
| Enterprise value | 602 |
| less net debt | (73) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 529 |
| ÷ 2.38 crore shares | ₹222 |
76% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 231 | 250 | 273 | 301 | 336 |
| 10.50% | 210 | 226 | 245 | 268 | 295 |
| 11.00% | 193 | 207 | 222 | 241 | 263 |
| 11.50% | 178 | 190 | 203 | 218 | 236 |
| 12.00% | 165 | 175 | 186 | 199 | 214 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹254.25; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 176 · 221 · 271 |
| Draws below the CMP | 80% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.75 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.62 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.05 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 981 | 1,059 | 1,144 | 1,235 | 1,334 | 1,441 |
| growth % | — | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| EBITDA | 55 | 59 | 64 | 69 | 75 | 81 |
| margin % | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.6 |
| less depreciation | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (3) | (3) |
| EBIT | 53 | 57 | 62 | 67 | 72 | 78 |
| less tax on EBIT | (11) | (12) | (13) | (14) | (15) | (16) |
| NOPAT | 42 | 45 | 49 | 53 | 57 | 62 |
| add depreciation | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| less capex | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) |
| less working-capital build | — | (13) | (14) | (15) | (16) | (17) |
| Free cash flow to firm | — | 32 | 34 | 37 | 41 | 44 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |
| Present value | 30 | 29 | 29 | 28 | 28 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 124, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 53 | 57 | 62 | 67 | 72 | 78 |
| Interest at 10.6% on debt | (13) | (13) | (13) | (13) | (13) | |
| Profit before tax | 44 | 49 | 54 | 59 | 65 | |
| Profit after tax | 37 | 35 | 39 | 43 | 47 | 51 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 51 | 72 | 96 | 123 | 153 | 187 |
| Working capital | 157 | 170 | 184 | 198 | 214 | 232 |
| Net block and other assets | 266 | 267 | 268 | 269 | 269 | 270 |
| Debt | 124 | 124 | 124 | 124 | 124 | 124 |
| Equity | 294 | 329 | 368 | 411 | 457 | 509 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 25 | 27 | 30 | 34 | 37 | |
| Investing (capex) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 21 | 24 | 27 | 30 | 34 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 21 | 24 | 27 | 30 | 34 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 8% | 5.6% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹222 | (12.6)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.