₹702per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹702implied FY26 P/E 8.8× · EV/EBITDA 6.8×
Against CMP ₹1,702.60−58.8%close of 2026-09-20
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY31107%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹484₹1,142
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹1,600₹2,763
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | (88) |
| PV of terminal value | 1,259 |
| Enterprise value | 1,171 |
| less net debt | 6 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,177 |
| ÷ 1.68 crore shares | ₹702 |
107% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 730 | 805 | 895 | 1,005 | 1,142 |
| 10.50% | 654 | 716 | 789 | 878 | 985 |
| 11.00% | 589 | 641 | 702 | 774 | 861 |
| 11.50% | 532 | 577 | 628 | 688 | 759 |
| 12.00% | 484 | 522 | 566 | 616 | 675 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,702.60; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 199 · 688 · 1,080 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.82 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.47 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.25 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,454 | 1,898 | 2,467 | 3,208 | 4,170 | 5,421 | 7,047 |
| growth % | — | 30.6 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| EBITDA | 136 | 173 | 225 | 292 | 379 | 493 | 641 |
| margin % | 9.4 | 9.1 | 9.1 | 9.1 | 9.1 | 9.1 | 9.1 |
| less depreciation | (12) | (14) | (20) | (26) | (33) | (43) | (56) |
| EBIT | 124 | 159 | 205 | 266 | 346 | 450 | 585 |
| less tax on EBIT | (43) | (56) | (73) | (94) | (123) | (160) | |
| NOPAT | 115 | 149 | 194 | 252 | 327 | 425 | |
| add depreciation | 12 | 14 | 20 | 26 | 33 | 43 | 56 |
| less capex | (76) | (119) | (155) | (159) | (151) | (124) | (68) |
| less working-capital build | — | (102) | (133) | (173) | (225) | (293) | |
| Free cash flow to firm | (23) | — | (89) | (73) | (40) | 21 | 121 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||
| Present value | (85) | (63) | (31) | 14 | 76 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 15, dividends at 15.6% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 159 | 205 | 266 | 346 | 450 | 585 |
| Interest at 14.2% on debt | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | |
| Profit before tax | 203 | 264 | 344 | 448 | 583 | |
| Profit after tax | 135 | 147 | 192 | 250 | 326 | 424 |
| Dividends | (21) | (23) | (30) | (39) | (51) | (66) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 21 | (93) | (198) | (278) | (310) | (256) |
| Working capital | 342 | 445 | 578 | 751 | 976 | 1,269 |
| Net block and other assets | 938 | 1,074 | 1,208 | 1,326 | 1,407 | 1,418 |
| Debt | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 |
| Equity | 881 | 1,005 | 1,168 | 1,379 | 1,653 | 2,011 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 65 | 84 | 110 | 144 | 187 | |
| Investing (capex) | (155) | (159) | (151) | (124) | (68) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (23) | (30) | (39) | (51) | (66) | |
| Net change in cash | (114) | (105) | (80) | (31) | 54 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (91) | (75) | (41) | 19 | 120 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 30% | 9.1% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹702 | (58.8)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.