Models
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₹930per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹930implied FY26 P/E 6.3× · EV/EBITDA 14.5×
Against CMP ₹642.00+44.8%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies(0.1)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3176%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹722₹1,344
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 263 |
| PV of terminal value | 819 |
| Enterprise value | 1,082 |
| less net debt | 5 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,087 |
| ÷ 1.17 crore shares | ₹930 |
76% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 960 | 1,030 | 1,114 | 1,216 | 1,344 |
| 10.50% | 887 | 945 | 1,013 | 1,095 | 1,196 |
| 11.00% | 824 | 873 | 930 | 997 | 1,078 |
| 11.50% | 769 | 811 | 859 | 915 | 981 |
| 12.00% | 722 | 758 | 798 | 845 | 900 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹642.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 769 · 925 · 1,115 |
| Draws below the CMP | 0% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.64 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.58 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.45 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 121 | 110 | 115 | 126 | 138 | 151 | 166 | 181 | 199 |
| growth % | (3.3) | (9.4) | 4.9 | 9.7 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 9.5 |
| EBITDA | 74 | 82 | 82 | 75 | 82 | 90 | 98 | 107 | 118 |
| margin % | 61.5 | 75.0 | 70.9 | 59.2 | 59.2 | 59.2 | 59.2 | 59.2 | 59.2 |
| less depreciation | (5) | (5) | (5) | (6) | (6) | (7) | (8) | (8) | (9) |
| EBIT | 69 | 77 | 76 | 69 | 75 | 83 | 90 | 99 | 108 |
| less tax on EBIT | (16) | (17) | (19) | (21) | (23) | (25) | |||
| NOPAT | 53 | 58 | 64 | 70 | 76 | 83 | |||
| add depreciation | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 9 |
| less capex | (2) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (7) | (9) | (11) |
| less working-capital build | — | (2) | (2) | (2) | (3) | (3) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 112 | 2 | 39 | — | 59 | 63 | 68 | 73 | 79 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 56 | 54 | 53 | 51 | 49 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 69 | 75 | 83 | 90 | 99 | 108 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 75 | 83 | 90 | 99 | 108 | |
| Profit after tax | 153 | 58 | 64 | 70 | 76 | 83 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 5 | 64 | 127 | 195 | 269 | 347 |
| Working capital | 20 | 22 | 24 | 27 | 29 | 32 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,797 | 1,795 | 1,793 | 1,792 | 1,792 | 1,794 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 1,692 | 1,750 | 1,814 | 1,884 | 1,960 | 2,043 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 62 | 68 | 75 | 82 | 90 | |
| Investing (capex) | (4) | (5) | (7) | (9) | (11) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 59 | 63 | 68 | 73 | 79 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 59 | 63 | 68 | 73 | 79 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 9.5% | 59.2% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹930 | 44.8% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.