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Model Note · ITC LTD · 11 September 2026Page 1 of 2
Model Note
Prepared by the reader · not a MarketPing document
ITC LTD Discounted cash flow · base FY26
ITC LTD
Value per share, this model₹296
CMP 2026-09-10₹259.85
Difference13.8%
Growth the CMP implies6.1%/yr
This note states the assumptions and the arithmetic of one model of ITC LTD, built on its filed FY26 consolidated statements. The value is the outcome of the assumptions below and nothing else; it is not a fair value, a target or a recommendation.
Assumptions
Input
This model
Filed reference
Revenue growth, 5 years
10% a year
FY26 10.2% · 5-yr CAGR 11.1%
EBITDA margin
30.1%
FY26 30.1% · 5-yr average 32.3%
Depreciation · capex, % of revenue
1.9% · 2.4%, fading to 1.2× depreciation
FY26 1.9% · 2.4%
Working capital, % of added revenue · tax
18.8% · 25.4%
69 working-capital days · effective 25.4%
Discount rate
11.00%
1-yr beta 0.67
After FY31
5% flat · mid-year discounting
—
Net debt · non-controlling interest · non-operating investments
₹1,543 · ₹0 · ₹0 cr
FY26 net debt ₹1,543 cr
Shares
1,252.95 crore
1,252.95 crore today
Source: SEBI results XBRL as filed with BSE/NSE, exchange prices; the reader's assumptions.
Projected cash flow to the firm
₹ crore
FY26
FY27
FY28
FY29
FY30
FY31
Revenue
89,913
98,905
1,08,795
1,19,675
1,31,642
1,44,806
growth %
10.2
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
EBITDA
27,026
29,770
32,747
36,022
39,624
43,587
Depreciation
(1,711)
(1,879)
(2,067)
(2,274)
(2,501)
(2,751)
NOPAT
18,885
20,807
22,887
25,176
27,694
30,463
less capex
(2,183)
(2,374)
(2,578)
(2,800)
(3,041)
(3,302)
less working-capital build
—
(1,690)
(1,859)
(2,045)
(2,250)
(2,475)
Free cash flow to firm
—
18,622
20,517
22,604
24,904
27,438
Present value
17,675
17,544
17,413
17,284
17,155
Source: the model; base year as filed.
Every figure is the reader's model over filed numbers · No rating, target or fair value is expressedmarketping.in
Model Note · ITC LTD · 11 September 2026Page 2 of 2
From enterprise to equity
PV of the 5 explicit years
87,072
PV of the terminal value (77% of EV)
2,84,955
Enterprise value
3,72,027
less net debt
(1,543)
less non-controlling interest
0
add non-operating investments
0
Equity value
3,70,484
÷ 1,252.95 crore shares
₹296
Source: the model.
Sensitivity, ₹ per share
WACC ↓ · terminal growth →
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
10.0%
306
328
355
389
430
10.5%
282
301
323
350
382
11.0%
261
277
296
318
344
11.5%
244
257
273
291
312
12.0%
228
240
253
268
286
Source: the model; n/a where terminal growth reaches the discount rate.
Statement
This note is the reader's own model over publicly filed information: SEBI results XBRL filed with BSE and NSE and exchange price data, assembled by MarketPing software; every assumption above is the reader's. It contains no research recommendation, no price target and no opinion by MarketPing on the merits of any security, and is not a research report within the meaning of the SEBI (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014, Regulation 2(1)(w)(vii). Historical per-share figures are on the current share count. Where a figure is unavailable the table shows a dash rather than an estimate. Nothing here constitutes investment advice, an offer or a solicitation.
Every figure is the reader's model over filed numbers · No rating, target or fair value is expressedmarketping.in
