Models
ITL INDUSTRIES LTD.ITLIndustrial Manufacturing
₹-21per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹(21)implied FY26 P/E (0.8)× · EV/EBITDA 1.2×
Against CMP ₹369.10−105.8%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3191%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹(34)₹4
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 1 |
| PV of terminal value | 14 |
| Enterprise value | 15 |
| less net debt | (22) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | (7) |
| ÷ 0.32 crore shares | ₹(21) |
91% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | (20) | (15) | (10) | (4) | 4 |
| 10.50% | (24) | (21) | (16) | (11) | (5) |
| 11.00% | (28) | (25) | (21) | (17) | (12) |
| 11.50% | (31) | (29) | (26) | (22) | (18) |
| 12.00% | (34) | (32) | (29) | (26) | (23) |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹369.10; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | (146) · (22) · 79 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.84 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.54 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.05 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 144 | 158 | 183 | 203 | 224 | 248 | 274 | 303 | 334 |
| growth % | 26.9 | 9.6 | 16.3 | 10.7 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.5 |
| EBITDA | 11 | 11 | 14 | 12 | 14 | 15 | 17 | 18 | 20 |
| margin % | 7.7 | 7.1 | 7.5 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 6.1 |
| less depreciation | (1) | (1) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (3) | (3) |
| EBIT | 10 | 10 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 16 | 17 |
| less tax on EBIT | (3) | (3) | (4) | (4) | (5) | (5) | |||
| NOPAT | 8 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | |||
| add depreciation | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| less capex | (2) | (4) | (3) | (3) | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) |
| less working-capital build | — | (7) | (8) | (9) | (9) | (10) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 4 | 1 | (2) | — | (0) | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (0) | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 23, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 16 | 17 |
| Interest at 9.6% on debt | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | |
| Profit before tax | 10 | 11 | 12 | 14 | 15 | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
| Dividends | (0) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 0 | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (5) |
| Working capital | 67 | 74 | 81 | 90 | 99 | 110 |
| Net block and other assets | 86 | 88 | 89 | 91 | 92 | 92 |
| Debt | 23 | 23 | 23 | 23 | 23 | 23 |
| Equity | 89 | 95 | 103 | 112 | 121 | 132 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | |
| Investing (capex) | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | (2) | (2) | (1) | (1) | (0) | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (2) | (2) | (1) | (1) | (0) | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 10.5% | 6.1% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹(21) | (105.8)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.