Models
IVP LIMITEDIVPChemicals & Petrochemicals
₹74per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹74implied FY26 P/E 2.4× · EV/EBITDA 4.0×
Against CMP ₹223.95−66.9%close of 2026-09-20
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3171%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹46₹130
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹110₹224
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 41 |
| PV of terminal value | 98 |
| Enterprise value | 138 |
| less net debt | (62) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 76 |
| ÷ 1.03 crore shares | ₹74 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 78 | 88 | 99 | 113 | 130 |
| 10.50% | 68 | 76 | 85 | 97 | 110 |
| 11.00% | 60 | 66 | 74 | 83 | 94 |
| 11.50% | 52 | 58 | 64 | 72 | 81 |
| 12.00% | 46 | 51 | 56 | 63 | 70 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹223.95; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | (13) · 73 · 147 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.69 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.68 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.17 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 661 | 546 | 539 | 595 | 657 | 726 | 802 | 886 | 979 |
| growth % | 18.8 | (17.4) | (1.3) | 10.3 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.5 |
| EBITDA | 53 | 28 | 25 | 34 | 38 | 42 | 47 | 51 | 57 |
| margin % | 8.0 | 5.1 | 4.7 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 |
| less depreciation | (5) | (6) | (6) | (6) | (7) | (7) | (8) | (9) | (10) |
| EBIT | 47 | 22 | 19 | 28 | 32 | 35 | 39 | 43 | 47 |
| less tax on EBIT | (7) | (8) | (9) | (10) | (11) | (12) | |||
| NOPAT | 21 | 23 | 26 | 29 | 32 | 35 | |||
| add depreciation | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
| less capex | (6) | (4) | (5) | (3) | (3) | (5) | (7) | (9) | (12) |
| less working-capital build | — | (16) | (17) | (19) | (21) | (24) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 35 | 42 | (7) | — | 11 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 9 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 10 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 65, dividends at 5.5% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 28 | 32 | 35 | 39 | 43 | 47 |
| Interest at 8.7% on debt | (6) | (6) | (6) | (6) | (6) | |
| Profit before tax | 26 | 29 | 33 | 37 | 41 | |
| Profit after tax | 19 | 19 | 22 | 24 | 27 | 31 |
| Dividends | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (2) | (2) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 3 | 9 | 14 | 19 | 23 | 27 |
| Working capital | 150 | 166 | 183 | 203 | 224 | 248 |
| Net block and other assets | 189 | 185 | 183 | 182 | 182 | 184 |
| Debt | 65 | 65 | 65 | 65 | 65 | 65 |
| Equity | 157 | 175 | 196 | 219 | 245 | 274 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 10 | 11 | 13 | 15 | 17 | |
| Investing (capex) | (3) | (5) | (7) | (9) | (12) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (2) | (2) | |
| Net change in cash | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 5 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 10.5% | 5.8% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹74 | (66.9)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.