K M SUGAR MILLS LTD — valuation model

K M SUGAR MILLS LTDKMSUGARAgricultural Food & other Products

₹35per share · Base Model Note

Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.

Scenario

Value per share, your model₹35implied FY26 P/E 5.7× · EV/EBITDA 6.5×

Against CMP ₹28.94+19.9%close of 2026-09-20

Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs

Value after FY3180%share of enterprise value in the terminal

This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.

Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP

DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid

₹20₹64

52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value

₹23₹37

From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore

PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow	114
PV of terminal value	453
Enterprise value	567
less net debt	(248)
less non-controlling interest	0
add non-operating investments	0
Equity value	319
÷ 9.20 crore shares	₹35

80% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.

Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore

Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm

Sensitivity · ₹ per share

Down Across

WACC ↓terminal growth →	4.0%	4.5%	5.0%	5.5%	6.0%
10.00%	37	42	48	55	64
10.50%	32	36	41	46	53
11.00%	27	31	35	39	45
11.50%	23	26	30	34	38
12.00%	20	23	26	29	33

The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹28.94; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.

Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together

10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share	23 · 35 · 48
Draws below the CMP	27%
Rank correlation with ebitda margin	+0.77
Rank correlation with discount rate	−0.62
Rank correlation with revenue growth	−0.03

Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.

Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore

History Forward

₹ crore	FY23	FY24	FY25	FY26	FY27	FY28	FY29	FY30	FY31
Revenue	576	657	659	658	658	658	658	658	658
growth %	5.0	14.2	0.3	(0.1)	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
EBITDA	50	70	82	87	87	87	87	87	87
margin %	8.6	10.6	12.4	13.2	13.2	13.2	13.2	13.2	13.2
less depreciation	(16)	(23)	(22)	(22)	(22)	(22)	(22)	(22)	(22)
EBIT	34	47	60	65	65	65	65	65	65
less tax on EBIT				(17)	(17)	(17)	(17)	(17)	(17)
NOPAT				48	48	48	48	48	48
add depreciation	16	23	22	22	22	22	22	22	22
less capex	(76)	(26)	(15)	(52)	(52)	(46)	(39)	(33)	(26)
less working-capital build				—	0	0	0	0	0
Free cash flow to firm	(3)	3	16	—	18	24	31	37	44
Discount factor					0.949	0.855	0.770	0.694	0.625
Present value					17	21	24	26	27

History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.

The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 250, dividends at 0% of profit

₹ crore	FY26	FY27	FY28	FY29	FY30	FY31
Income statement
EBIT	65	65	65	65	65	65
Interest at 4.4% on debt		(11)	(11)	(11)	(11)	(11)
Profit before tax		54	54	54	54	54
Profit after tax	53	40	40	40	40	40
Dividends	0	0	0	0	0	0
Balance sheet, year end
Cash	1	11	27	50	79	114
Working capital	318	318	318	318	318	318
Net block and other assets	430	460	484	501	512	516
Debt	250	250	250	250	250	250
Equity	392	432	472	512	551	591
Balance check	0	(0)	(0)	0	0	(0)
Cash flow
From operations		62	62	62	62	62
Investing (capex)		(52)	(46)	(39)	(33)	(26)
Financing (dividends)		0	0	0	0	0
Net change in cash		10	16	23	29	36
Free cash flow to equity		10	16	23	29	36

Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.

Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share

Scenario	Template	Growth	Margin	Rate	Terminal	₹ / share	vs CMP
Base · editing	DCF	0%	13.2%	11.00%	5%	₹35	19.9%

A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.