Models
KHAITAN CHEM & FERT LTDKHAICHEM
₹186per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹186implied FY26 P/E 33.3× · EV/EBITDA 18.4×
Against CMP ₹47.51+290.7%close of 8 Oct 2026
Growth the CMP implies—%no growth rate between −20% and 45% a year brings the value to the CMP on your other inputs
Value after FY3181%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹134₹288
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹43₹133
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 391 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,688 |
| Enterprise value | 2,079 |
| less net debt | (278) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,801 |
| ÷ 9.70 crore shares | ₹186 |
81% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 193 | 210 | 231 | 257 | 288 |
| 10.50% | 175 | 189 | 206 | 227 | 252 |
| 11.00% | 159 | 171 | 186 | 202 | 222 |
| 11.50% | 146 | 156 | 168 | 182 | 199 |
| 12.00% | 134 | 143 | 153 | 165 | 179 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹47.51; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 124 · 181 · 246 |
| Draws below the CMP | 0% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.87 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.42 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.09 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 888 | 536 | 720 | 1,002 | 1,302 | 1,693 | 2,201 | 2,861 | 3,719 |
| growth % | 7.8 | (39.6) | 34.4 | 39.1 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| EBITDA | 78 | (30) | 23 | 113 | 147 | 191 | 249 | 323 | 420 |
| margin % | 8.8 | (5.6) | 3.2 | 11.3 | 11.3 | 11.3 | 11.3 | 11.3 | 11.3 |
| less depreciation | (9) | (12) | (11) | (10) | (13) | (17) | (22) | (29) | (37) |
| EBIT | 69 | (42) | 12 | 103 | 134 | 174 | 227 | 295 | 383 |
| less tax on EBIT | (4) | (5) | (7) | (9) | (12) | (16) | |||
| NOPAT | 99 | 129 | 167 | 217 | 283 | 367 | |||
| add depreciation | 9 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 17 | 22 | 29 | 37 |
| less capex | (33) | (12) | (5) | (9) | (12) | (17) | (23) | (32) | (45) |
| less working-capital build | — | (69) | (90) | (117) | (152) | (197) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (118) | (67) | 39 | — | 61 | 78 | 99 | 127 | 163 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 58 | 67 | 77 | 88 | 102 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 278, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 103 | 134 | 174 | 227 | 295 | 383 |
| Interest at 11.1% on debt | (31) | (31) | (31) | (31) | (31) | |
| Profit before tax | 103 | 144 | 196 | 264 | 352 | |
| Profit after tax | 65 | 99 | 138 | 188 | 253 | 338 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 0 | 31 | 80 | 149 | 247 | 380 |
| Working capital | 231 | 300 | 390 | 507 | 658 | 856 |
| Net block and other assets | 451 | 449 | 449 | 450 | 454 | 461 |
| Debt | 278 | 278 | 278 | 278 | 278 | 278 |
| Equity | 291 | 390 | 527 | 715 | 968 | 1,306 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 43 | 65 | 93 | 130 | 178 | |
| Investing (capex) | (12) | (17) | (23) | (32) | (45) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 31 | 48 | 70 | 98 | 133 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 31 | 48 | 70 | 98 | 133 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 30% | 11.3% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹186 | 290.7% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.