Models
KIC METALIKS LTD.BSE 513693Ferrous Metals
₹62per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹62implied FY22 P/E 5.7× · EV/EBITDA 5.9×
Against CMP ₹32.46+92.4%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies(17.8)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY2778%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹38₹111
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹20₹42
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY23–FY27 free cash flow | 83 |
| PV of terminal value | 294 |
| Enterprise value | 378 |
| less net debt | (156) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 222 |
| ÷ 3.55 crore shares | ₹62 |
78% of the value sits after FY27. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 66 | 74 | 84 | 96 | 111 |
| 10.50% | 57 | 64 | 72 | 82 | 94 |
| 11.00% | 50 | 56 | 62 | 70 | 80 |
| 11.50% | 43 | 48 | 54 | 61 | 69 |
| 12.00% | 38 | 42 | 47 | 53 | 59 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹32.46; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 45 · 63 · 84 |
| Draws below the CMP | 1% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.70 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.69 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.03 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY20 | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 496 | 551 | 514 | 488 | 464 | 441 | 419 | 398 |
| growth % | — | 11.0 | (6.7) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) |
| EBITDA | 27 | 27 | 64 | 61 | 58 | 55 | 52 | 50 |
| margin % | 5.4 | 5.0 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 12.5 |
| less depreciation | (8) | (9) | (12) | (11) | (11) | (10) | (10) | (9) |
| EBIT | 19 | 18 | 52 | 50 | 47 | 45 | 43 | 41 |
| less tax on EBIT | (17) | (16) | (16) | (15) | (14) | (13) | ||
| NOPAT | 35 | 33 | 32 | 30 | 29 | 27 | ||
| add depreciation | 8 | 9 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 9 |
| less capex | — | (6) | (35) | (33) | (27) | (21) | (16) | (11) |
| less working-capital build | — | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | ||
| Free cash flow to firm | — | 6 | — | 15 | 19 | 22 | 26 | 28 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |||
| Present value | 14 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 18 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 156, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 52 | 50 | 47 | 45 | 43 | 41 |
| Interest at 14.2% on debt | (22) | (22) | (22) | (22) | (22) | |
| Profit before tax | 28 | 25 | 23 | 21 | 18 | |
| Profit after tax | 39 | 19 | 17 | 15 | 14 | 12 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 0 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 23 | 36 |
| Working capital | 73 | 69 | 66 | 62 | 59 | 56 |
| Net block and other assets | 319 | 341 | 357 | 368 | 374 | 376 |
| Debt | 156 | 156 | 156 | 156 | 156 | 156 |
| Equity | 159 | 178 | 195 | 210 | 224 | 236 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 33 | 31 | 29 | 27 | 24 | |
| Investing (capex) | (33) | (27) | (21) | (16) | (11) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 0 | 4 | 8 | 11 | 13 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 0 | 4 | 8 | 11 | 13 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY22 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -5% | 12.5% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹62 | 92.4% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.