Models
KILITCH DRUGS INDIA LTDKILITCHPharmaceuticals & Biotechnology
₹40per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹40implied FY26 P/E 3.2× · EV/EBITDA 5.9×
Against CMP ₹209.25−80.7%close of 29 Oct 2026
Growth the CMP implies—%no growth rate between −20% and 45% a year brings the value to the CMP on your other inputs
Value after FY31185%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹8₹106
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹117₹268
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | (182) |
| PV of terminal value | 396 |
| Enterprise value | 214 |
| less net debt | (73) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 141 |
| ÷ 3.50 crore shares | ₹40 |
185% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 44 | 55 | 69 | 85 | 106 |
| 10.50% | 33 | 42 | 53 | 67 | 83 |
| 11.00% | 23 | 31 | 40 | 51 | 64 |
| 11.50% | 15 | 22 | 30 | 39 | 49 |
| 12.00% | 8 | 14 | 20 | 28 | 37 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹209.25; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 12 · 39 · 72 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.80 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.54 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.10 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 140 | 154 | 198 | 235 | 279 | 331 | 392 | 464 | 550 |
| growth % | 22.2 | 10.6 | 28.5 | 18.7 | 18.5 | 18.5 | 18.5 | 18.5 | 18.5 |
| EBITDA | 18 | 24 | 31 | 37 | 43 | 51 | 61 | 72 | 85 |
| margin % | 12.6 | 15.6 | 15.9 | 15.5 | 15.5 | 15.5 | 15.5 | 15.5 | 15.5 |
| less depreciation | (4) | (3) | (3) | (4) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | (8) |
| EBIT | 14 | 21 | 28 | 33 | 39 | 46 | 55 | 65 | 77 |
| less tax on EBIT | (8) | (9) | (11) | (13) | (15) | (18) | |||
| NOPAT | 25 | 30 | 35 | 42 | 50 | 59 | |||
| add depreciation | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 |
| less capex | (4) | 0 | 0 | (100) | (118) | (106) | (86) | (55) | (10) |
| less working-capital build | — | (10) | (11) | (14) | (16) | (19) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (1) | (0) | 18 | — | (94) | (78) | (52) | (15) | 38 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (89) | (66) | (40) | (10) | 24 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 89, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 33 | 39 | 46 | 55 | 65 | 77 |
| Interest at 8.1% on debt | (7) | (7) | (7) | (7) | (7) | |
| Profit before tax | 32 | 39 | 48 | 58 | 70 | |
| Profit after tax | 30 | 24 | 30 | 36 | 44 | 53 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 16 | (83) | (166) | (224) | (244) | (212) |
| Working capital | 52 | 62 | 73 | 87 | 103 | 122 |
| Net block and other assets | 390 | 504 | 605 | 686 | 734 | 736 |
| Debt | 89 | 89 | 89 | 89 | 89 | 89 |
| Equity | 277 | 301 | 331 | 367 | 412 | 465 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 19 | 23 | 29 | 35 | 43 | |
| Investing (capex) | (118) | (106) | (86) | (55) | (10) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | (99) | (83) | (58) | (20) | 33 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (99) | (83) | (58) | (20) | 33 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 18.5% | 15.5% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹40 | (80.7)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.