Models
K M C SPECIALITY HOSP I LKMCSHILHealthcare Services
₹130per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹130implied FY26 P/E 45.5× · EV/EBITDA 24.4×
Against CMP ₹177.58−26.8%close of 8 Oct 2026
Growth the CMP implies38.9%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3180%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹99₹192
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹128₹185
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 422 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,720 |
| Enterprise value | 2,142 |
| less net debt | (21) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 2,121 |
| ÷ 16.31 crore shares | ₹130 |
80% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 135 | 145 | 158 | 173 | 192 |
| 10.50% | 124 | 132 | 143 | 155 | 170 |
| 11.00% | 114 | 121 | 130 | 140 | 152 |
| 11.50% | 106 | 112 | 119 | 128 | 138 |
| 12.00% | 99 | 104 | 110 | 117 | 126 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹177.58; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 93 · 129 · 178 |
| Draws below the CMP | 90% |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.80 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.41 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.38 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 156 | 177 | 232 | 306 | 397 | 517 | 672 | 873 | 1,135 |
| growth % | 14.5 | 13.8 | 30.7 | 32.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| EBITDA | 41 | 47 | 57 | 88 | 114 | 149 | 193 | 252 | 327 |
| margin % | 26.5 | 26.7 | 24.6 | 28.8 | 28.8 | 28.8 | 28.8 | 28.8 | 28.8 |
| less depreciation | (8) | (9) | (19) | (22) | (28) | (37) | (48) | (62) | (81) |
| EBIT | 34 | 38 | 38 | 66 | 86 | 112 | 146 | 190 | 246 |
| less tax on EBIT | (17) | (22) | (29) | (38) | (49) | (64) | |||
| NOPAT | 49 | 64 | 83 | 108 | 141 | 183 | |||
| add depreciation | 8 | 9 | 19 | 22 | 28 | 37 | 48 | 62 | 81 |
| less capex | (44) | (75) | (64) | (17) | (21) | (32) | (47) | (68) | (97) |
| less working-capital build | — | (0) | (0) | (1) | (1) | (1) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (12) | (37) | (6) | — | 70 | 87 | 108 | 134 | 166 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 67 | 75 | 84 | 93 | 104 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 71, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 66 | 86 | 112 | 146 | 190 | 246 |
| Interest at 10.9% on debt | (8) | (8) | (8) | (8) | (8) | |
| Profit before tax | 79 | 104 | 138 | 182 | 239 | |
| Profit after tax | 47 | 58 | 77 | 102 | 135 | 177 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 50 | 115 | 196 | 299 | 428 | 588 |
| Working capital | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| Net block and other assets | 281 | 274 | 269 | 269 | 274 | 290 |
| Debt | 71 | 71 | 71 | 71 | 71 | 71 |
| Equity | 210 | 269 | 346 | 449 | 583 | 760 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 86 | 114 | 149 | 196 | 257 | |
| Investing (capex) | (21) | (32) | (47) | (68) | (97) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 65 | 82 | 103 | 128 | 160 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 65 | 82 | 103 | 128 | 160 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 30% | 28.8% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹130 | (26.8)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.