Models
KNR CONSTRU LTD.KNRCONConstruction
₹153per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹153implied FY26 P/E 10.9× · EV/EBITDA 9.2×
Against CMP ₹111.40+37.6%close of 8 Oct 2026
Growth the CMP implies(11.0)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3169%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹105₹249
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹109₹196
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 2,023 |
| PV of terminal value | 4,538 |
| Enterprise value | 6,561 |
| less net debt | (2,251) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 4,310 |
| ÷ 28.12 crore shares | ₹153 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 161 | 177 | 196 | 219 | 249 |
| 10.50% | 143 | 157 | 173 | 192 | 215 |
| 11.00% | 129 | 140 | 153 | 169 | 187 |
| 11.50% | 116 | 126 | 137 | 150 | 165 |
| 12.00% | 105 | 113 | 123 | 134 | 146 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹111.40; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 121 · 153 · 193 |
| Draws below the CMP | 5% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.74 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.65 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.03 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4,062 | 4,429 | 4,753 | 2,698 | 2,563 | 2,435 | 2,313 | 2,198 | 2,088 |
| growth % | 12.7 | 9.0 | 7.3 | (43.2) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) |
| EBITDA | 979 | 1,048 | 1,485 | 711 | 677 | 643 | 611 | 580 | 551 |
| margin % | 24.1 | 23.7 | 31.2 | 26.4 | 26.4 | 26.4 | 26.4 | 26.4 | 26.4 |
| less depreciation | (181) | (157) | (314) | (59) | (56) | (54) | (51) | (48) | (46) |
| EBIT | 798 | 891 | 1,171 | 652 | 620 | 589 | 560 | 532 | 505 |
| less tax on EBIT | (111) | (105) | (100) | (95) | (90) | (86) | |||
| NOPAT | 541 | 515 | 489 | 465 | 441 | 419 | |||
| add depreciation | 181 | 157 | 314 | 59 | 56 | 54 | 51 | 48 | 46 |
| less capex | (154) | (83) | (28) | (14) | (13) | (25) | (36) | (46) | (55) |
| less working-capital build | — | 33 | 31 | 30 | 28 | 27 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 1,040 | (399) | (595) | — | 591 | 549 | 509 | 472 | 437 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 561 | 469 | 392 | 327 | 273 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 2,438, dividends at 1.6% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 652 | 620 | 589 | 560 | 532 | 505 |
| Interest at 9.9% on debt | (241) | (241) | (241) | (241) | (241) | |
| Profit before tax | 379 | 348 | 318 | 290 | 264 | |
| Profit after tax | 437 | 315 | 289 | 264 | 241 | 219 |
| Dividends | (7) | (5) | (5) | (4) | (4) | (4) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 186 | 572 | 916 | 1,221 | 1,488 | 1,721 |
| Working capital | 659 | 626 | 594 | 565 | 536 | 510 |
| Net block and other assets | 7,277 | 7,233 | 7,205 | 7,190 | 7,188 | 7,197 |
| Debt | 2,438 | 2,438 | 2,438 | 2,438 | 2,438 | 2,438 |
| Equity | 4,972 | 5,281 | 5,565 | 5,826 | 6,063 | 6,278 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 404 | 374 | 345 | 318 | 292 | |
| Investing (capex) | (13) | (25) | (36) | (46) | (55) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (5) | (5) | (4) | (4) | (4) | |
| Net change in cash | 386 | 344 | 304 | 268 | 233 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 391 | 348 | 309 | 271 | 237 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -5% | 26.4% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹153 | 37.6% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.