Models
KOPRAN LTDKOPRAN
₹-10per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹(10)implied FY26 P/E (2.0)× · EV/EBITDA 1.6×
Against CMP ₹275.02−103.8%close of 2026-09-21
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY31145%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹(19)₹7
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹107₹287
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | (46) |
| PV of terminal value | 148 |
| Enterprise value | 102 |
| less net debt | (152) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | (50) |
| ÷ 4.83 crore shares | ₹(10) |
145% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | (9) | (6) | (3) | 2 | 7 |
| 10.50% | (12) | (10) | (7) | (3) | 1 |
| 11.00% | (15) | (13) | (10) | (7) | (4) |
| 11.50% | (17) | (15) | (13) | (11) | (8) |
| 12.00% | (19) | (18) | (16) | (14) | (11) |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹275.02; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | (38) · (11) · 14 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.74 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.64 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.16 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 551 | 615 | 630 | 681 | 736 | 795 | 858 | 927 | 1,001 |
| growth % | 15.4 | 11.5 | 2.4 | 8.2 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| EBITDA | 52 | 74 | 73 | 62 | 67 | 72 | 78 | 84 | 91 |
| margin % | 9.4 | 12.1 | 11.6 | 9.1 | 9.1 | 9.1 | 9.1 | 9.1 | 9.1 |
| less depreciation | (13) | (13) | (16) | (17) | (19) | (21) | (22) | (24) | (26) |
| EBIT | 39 | 62 | 57 | 44 | 48 | 52 | 56 | 60 | 65 |
| less tax on EBIT | (11) | (12) | (13) | (14) | (15) | (16) | |||
| NOPAT | 33 | 36 | 39 | 42 | 45 | 49 | |||
| add depreciation | 13 | 13 | 16 | 17 | 19 | 21 | 22 | 24 | 26 |
| less capex | (55) | (50) | (55) | (58) | (63) | (57) | (50) | (42) | (31) |
| less working-capital build | — | (22) | (23) | (25) | (27) | (29) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (21) | (7) | (13) | — | (30) | (21) | (11) | 0 | 14 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (28) | (18) | (9) | 0 | 9 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 153, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 44 | 48 | 52 | 56 | 60 | 65 |
| Interest at 7% on debt | (11) | (11) | (11) | (11) | (11) | |
| Profit before tax | 37 | 41 | 45 | 50 | 54 | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | 28 | 31 | 34 | 37 | 41 |
| Dividends | (14) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 1 | (37) | (67) | (86) | (93) | (87) |
| Working capital | 269 | 291 | 314 | 339 | 366 | 395 |
| Net block and other assets | 639 | 683 | 720 | 748 | 765 | 770 |
| Debt | 153 | 153 | 153 | 153 | 153 | 153 |
| Equity | 530 | 558 | 589 | 623 | 660 | 700 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 25 | 28 | 31 | 34 | 37 | |
| Investing (capex) | (63) | (57) | (50) | (42) | (31) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | (38) | (29) | (19) | (8) | 6 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (38) | (29) | (19) | (8) | 6 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 8% | 9.1% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹(10) | (103.8)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.