Models
KRITI NUTRIENTS LIMITEDKRITINUT
₹154per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹154implied FY26 P/E 23.1× · EV/EBITDA 16.8×
Against CMP ₹72.21+112.8%close of 8 Oct 2026
Growth the CMP implies(8.1)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3178%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹120₹221
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹51₹103
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 159 |
| PV of terminal value | 572 |
| Enterprise value | 731 |
| less net debt | 39 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 770 |
| ÷ 5.01 crore shares | ₹154 |
78% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 159 | 170 | 184 | 200 | 221 |
| 10.50% | 147 | 156 | 167 | 181 | 197 |
| 11.00% | 136 | 144 | 154 | 165 | 178 |
| 11.50% | 128 | 134 | 142 | 151 | 162 |
| 12.00% | 120 | 126 | 132 | 140 | 149 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹72.21; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 120 · 151 · 192 |
| Draws below the CMP | 0% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.69 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.48 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.47 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 734 | 922 | 1,157 | 1,451 | 1,822 | 2,286 | 2,869 |
| growth % | — | 25.5 | 25.5 | 25.5 | 25.5 | 25.5 | 25.5 |
| EBITDA | 48 | 43 | 54 | 68 | 86 | 107 | 135 |
| margin % | 6.5 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.7 |
| less depreciation | (5) | (6) | (7) | (9) | (11) | (14) | (17) |
| EBIT | 43 | 38 | 47 | 60 | 75 | 94 | 118 |
| less tax on EBIT | (9) | (12) | (15) | (19) | (23) | (29) | |
| NOPAT | 28 | 36 | 45 | 56 | 70 | 88 | |
| add depreciation | 5 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 17 |
| less capex | (5) | 0 | 0 | (3) | (7) | (12) | (21) |
| less working-capital build | — | (12) | (15) | (19) | (24) | (30) | |
| Free cash flow to firm | 27 | — | 31 | 36 | 42 | 48 | 55 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||
| Present value | 29 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 8, dividends at 48.4% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 38 | 47 | 60 | 75 | 94 | 118 |
| Interest at 10.6% on debt | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | |
| Profit before tax | 47 | 59 | 74 | 93 | 117 | |
| Profit after tax | 34 | 35 | 44 | 55 | 70 | 88 |
| Dividends | (16) | (17) | (21) | (27) | (34) | (42) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 46 | 59 | 73 | 87 | 101 | 113 |
| Working capital | 47 | 59 | 74 | 93 | 117 | 147 |
| Net block and other assets | 179 | 172 | 166 | 162 | 160 | 164 |
| Debt | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| Equity | 229 | 247 | 270 | 298 | 334 | 380 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 30 | 38 | 47 | 60 | 75 | |
| Investing (capex) | 0 | (3) | (7) | (12) | (21) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (17) | (21) | (27) | (34) | (42) | |
| Net change in cash | 13 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 12 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 30 | 35 | 41 | 47 | 54 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 25.5% | 4.7% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹154 | 112.8% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.