Models
LEHAR FOOTWEARS LIMITEDBSE 532829Consumer Durables
₹-16per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹(16)implied FY26 P/E (1.3)× · EV/EBITDA 0.6×
Against CMP ₹203.00−107.7%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY31186%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹(22)₹(2)
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹160₹285
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | (19) |
| PV of terminal value | 42 |
| Enterprise value | 22 |
| less net debt | (50) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | (28) |
| ÷ 1.77 crore shares | ₹(16) |
186% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | (15) | (12) | (10) | (6) | (2) |
| 10.50% | (17) | (15) | (13) | (10) | (7) |
| 11.00% | (19) | (17) | (16) | (13) | (11) |
| 11.50% | (21) | (19) | (18) | (16) | (14) |
| 12.00% | (22) | (21) | (20) | (18) | (16) |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹203.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | (178) · (15) · 93 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.81 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.58 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.02 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 202 | 194 | 277 | 431 | 560 | 729 | 947 | 1,231 | 1,601 |
| growth % | 47.1 | (3.9) | 42.7 | 55.5 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| EBITDA | 14 | 18 | 26 | 39 | 50 | 66 | 85 | 111 | 144 |
| margin % | 6.9 | 9.4 | 9.4 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 |
| less depreciation | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (8) | (10) | (13) | (17) | (22) |
| EBIT | 10 | 14 | 21 | 33 | 43 | 55 | 72 | 94 | 122 |
| less tax on EBIT | (8) | (11) | (14) | (18) | (24) | (31) | |||
| NOPAT | 25 | 32 | 41 | 54 | 70 | 91 | |||
| add depreciation | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 13 | 17 | 22 |
| less capex | (12) | (8) | (8) | (15) | (20) | (22) | (25) | (26) | (27) |
| less working-capital build | — | (29) | (37) | (49) | (63) | (82) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (14) | (6) | 12 | — | (9) | (8) | (6) | (3) | 4 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (8) | (7) | (5) | (2) | 3 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 53, dividends at 4.2% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 33 | 43 | 55 | 72 | 94 | 122 |
| Interest at 9% on debt | (5) | (5) | (5) | (5) | (5) | |
| Profit before tax | 38 | 51 | 67 | 89 | 117 | |
| Profit after tax | 21 | 28 | 38 | 50 | 66 | 87 |
| Dividends | (1) | (1) | (2) | (2) | (3) | (4) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 2 | (11) | (24) | (36) | (45) | (48) |
| Working capital | 96 | 125 | 162 | 210 | 273 | 355 |
| Net block and other assets | 175 | 187 | 199 | 210 | 219 | 224 |
| Debt | 53 | 53 | 53 | 53 | 53 | 53 |
| Equity | 132 | 159 | 196 | 243 | 307 | 390 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 7 | 11 | 15 | 20 | 27 | |
| Investing (capex) | (20) | (22) | (25) | (26) | (27) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (1) | (2) | (2) | (3) | (4) | |
| Net change in cash | (13) | (13) | (12) | (9) | (3) | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (12) | (12) | (10) | (6) | 1 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 30% | 9% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹(16) | (107.7)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.