Models
LOKESH MACHINES LTDLOKESHMACH
₹46per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹46implied FY26 P/E 21.2× · EV/EBITDA 7.0×
Against CMP ₹345.30−86.6%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3169%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹21₹98
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹139₹386
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 83 |
| PV of terminal value | 184 |
| Enterprise value | 268 |
| less net debt | (169) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 99 |
| ÷ 2.13 crore shares | ₹46 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 50 | 59 | 69 | 82 | 98 |
| 10.50% | 41 | 48 | 57 | 67 | 79 |
| 11.00% | 33 | 39 | 46 | 55 | 65 |
| 11.50% | 27 | 32 | 38 | 44 | 53 |
| 12.00% | 21 | 25 | 30 | 36 | 43 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹345.30; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 28 · 47 · 69 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.71 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.68 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.03 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 240 | 294 | 228 | 209 | 198 | 188 | 179 | 170 | 161 |
| growth % | 19.1 | 22.2 | (22.2) | (8.7) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) |
| EBITDA | 30 | 40 | 28 | 38 | 36 | 34 | 33 | 31 | 30 |
| margin % | 12.5 | 13.7 | 12.5 | 18.3 | 18.3 | 18.3 | 18.3 | 18.3 | 18.3 |
| less depreciation | (9) | (10) | (14) | (16) | (15) | (14) | (13) | (13) | (12) |
| EBIT | 21 | 30 | 15 | 23 | 21 | 20 | 19 | 18 | 17 |
| less tax on EBIT | (6) | (6) | (6) | (5) | (5) | (5) | |||
| NOPAT | 16 | 16 | 15 | 14 | 13 | 13 | |||
| add depreciation | 9 | 10 | 14 | 16 | 15 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 12 |
| less capex | (24) | (59) | (37) | (16) | (15) | (15) | (15) | (15) | (15) |
| less working-capital build | — | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 8 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 8 | (42) | (16) | — | 25 | 23 | 21 | 19 | 18 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 23 | 19 | 16 | 13 | 11 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 169, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 23 | 21 | 20 | 19 | 18 | 17 |
| Interest at 12.1% on debt | (21) | (21) | (21) | (21) | (21) | |
| Profit before tax | 1 | (0) | (1) | (2) | (3) | |
| Profit after tax | 4 | 1 | (0) | (1) | (2) | (2) |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 0 | 10 | 18 | 24 | 28 | 31 |
| Working capital | 184 | 175 | 166 | 158 | 150 | 143 |
| Net block and other assets | 311 | 312 | 312 | 314 | 316 | 318 |
| Debt | 169 | 169 | 169 | 169 | 169 | 169 |
| Equity | 228 | 229 | 229 | 228 | 226 | 224 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 25 | 23 | 21 | 19 | 17 | |
| Investing (capex) | (15) | (15) | (15) | (15) | (15) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 10 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 3 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 10 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 3 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -5% | 18.3% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹46 | (86.6)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.