Models
Macfos LimitedBSE 543787Retailing
₹383per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹383implied FY26 P/E 8.7× · EV/EBITDA 11.5×
Against CMP ₹1,071.00−64.2%close of 6 Nov 2026
Growth the CMP implies—%no growth rate between −20% and 45% a year brings the value to the CMP on your other inputs
Value after FY3181%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹291₹567
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹695₹1,315
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 75 |
| PV of terminal value | 323 |
| Enterprise value | 397 |
| less net debt | 0 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 397 |
| ÷ 1.04 crore shares | ₹383 |
81% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 396 | 428 | 465 | 510 | 567 |
| 10.50% | 364 | 390 | 420 | 457 | 502 |
| 11.00% | 336 | 358 | 383 | 413 | 449 |
| 11.50% | 312 | 331 | 352 | 377 | 406 |
| 12.00% | 291 | 307 | 325 | 346 | 371 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,071.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 280 · 377 · 480 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.84 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.46 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.17 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 125 | 255 | 309 | 374 | 452 | 547 | 662 | 801 |
| growth % | — | 103.8 | 21.1 | 21.0 | 21.0 | 21.0 | 21.0 | 21.0 |
| EBITDA | 15 | 24 | 35 | 42 | 51 | 61 | 74 | 90 |
| margin % | 11.8 | 9.2 | 11.2 | 11.2 | 11.2 | 11.2 | 11.2 | 11.2 |
| less depreciation | — | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| EBIT | — | — | 35 | 42 | 51 | 61 | 74 | 90 |
| less tax on EBIT | (9) | (11) | (13) | (16) | (19) | (23) | ||
| NOPAT | 26 | 31 | 38 | 46 | 55 | 67 | ||
| add depreciation | — | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| less capex | — | (5) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (2) | (1) | 0 |
| less working-capital build | — | (17) | (20) | (24) | (30) | (36) | ||
| Free cash flow to firm | — | (29) | — | 11 | 15 | 19 | 24 | 31 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |||
| Present value | 11 | 13 | 15 | 17 | 19 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 35 | 42 | 51 | 61 | 74 | 90 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 42 | 51 | 61 | 74 | 90 | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | 31 | 38 | 46 | 55 | 67 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 0 | 11 | 26 | 45 | 70 | 101 |
| Working capital | 80 | 96 | 117 | 141 | 171 | 207 |
| Net block and other assets | 81 | 84 | 86 | 88 | 90 | 90 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 108 | 139 | 177 | 223 | 278 | 345 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 14 | 18 | 21 | 26 | 31 | |
| Investing (capex) | (3) | (3) | (2) | (1) | 0 | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 11 | 15 | 19 | 24 | 31 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 11 | 15 | 19 | 24 | 31 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 21% | 11.2% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹383 | (64.2)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.