MADHAV INFRA PROJECTS L — valuation model

MADHAV INFRA PROJECTS LMADHAVIPLConstruction

₹13per share · Base Model Note

Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.

Scenario

Value per share, your model₹13implied FY26 P/E 9.8× · EV/EBITDA 7.6×

Against CMP ₹7.27+79.9%close of 8 Oct 2026

Growth the CMP implies—%no growth rate between −20% and 45% a year brings the value to the CMP on your other inputs

Value after FY3168%share of enterprise value in the terminal

This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.

Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP

DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid

₹9₹21

52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value

₹7₹10

From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore

PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow	164
PV of terminal value	341
Enterprise value	505
less net debt	(152)
less non-controlling interest	0
add non-operating investments	0
Equity value	353
÷ 26.96 crore shares	₹13

Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore

Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm

Sensitivity · ₹ per share

Down Across

WACC ↓terminal growth →	4.0%	4.5%	5.0%	5.5%	6.0%
10.00%	14	15	16	18	21
10.50%	12	13	15	16	18
11.00%	11	12	13	14	16
11.50%	10	11	12	13	14
12.00%	9	10	11	12	13

The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹7.27; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.

Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together

10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share	10 · 13 · 16
Draws below the CMP	0%
Rank correlation with ebitda margin	+0.70
Rank correlation with discount rate	−0.69
Rank correlation with revenue growth	−0.03

Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.

Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore

History Forward

₹ crore	FY23	FY24	FY25	FY26	FY27	FY28	FY29	FY30	FY31
Revenue	513	460	610	502	477	453	431	409	389
growth %	11.4	(10.2)	32.6	(17.7)	(5.0)	(5.0)	(5.0)	(5.0)	(5.0)
EBITDA	58	58	67	66	63	60	57	54	51
margin %	11.2	12.7	11.0	13.2	13.2	13.2	13.2	13.2	13.2
less depreciation	(13)	(16)	(15)	(14)	(13)	(12)	(12)	(11)	(10)
EBIT	44	42	52	53	50	48	45	43	41
less tax on EBIT				(12)	(12)	(11)	(11)	(10)	(10)
NOPAT				40	38	36	34	33	31
add depreciation	13	16	15	14	13	12	12	11	10
less capex	(67)	(8)	(10)	(6)	(6)	(8)	(10)	(11)	(13)
less working-capital build				—	5	4	4	4	4
Free cash flow to firm	6	57	114	—	50	45	41	37	33
Discount factor					0.949	0.855	0.770	0.694	0.625
Present value					47	39	31	25	21

History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.

The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 165, dividends at 0% of profit

₹ crore	FY26	FY27	FY28	FY29	FY30	FY31
Income statement
EBIT	53	50	48	45	43	41
Interest at 15.6% on debt		(26)	(26)	(26)	(26)	(26)
Profit before tax		24	22	19	17	15
Profit after tax	27	19	17	15	13	11
Dividends	0	0	0	0	0	0
Balance sheet, year end
Cash	13	44	69	90	107	121
Working capital	94	89	84	80	76	72
Net block and other assets	499	492	487	485	485	487
Debt	165	165	165	165	165	165
Equity	241	259	276	291	304	315
Balance check	0	0	(0)	(0)	0	0
Cash flow
From operations		36	33	31	28	26
Investing (capex)		(6)	(8)	(10)	(11)	(13)
Financing (dividends)		0	0	0	0	0
Net change in cash		30	26	21	17	13
Free cash flow to equity		30	26	21	17	13

Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.

Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share

Scenario	Template	Growth	Margin	Rate	Terminal	₹ / share	vs CMP
Base · editing	DCF	-5%	13.2%	11.00%	5%	₹13	79.9%

A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.