Models
MAGELLANIC CLOUD LIMITEDMCLOUDIT - Software
₹31per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹31implied FY26 P/E 12.9× · EV/EBITDA 9.6×
Against CMP ₹25.23+22.0%close of 2026-09-21
Growth the CMP implies1.8%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3172%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹23₹46
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹19₹87
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 579 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,472 |
| Enterprise value | 2,051 |
| less net debt | (238) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,813 |
| ÷ 58.91 crore shares | ₹31 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 32 | 34 | 37 | 41 | 46 |
| 10.50% | 29 | 31 | 34 | 37 | 40 |
| 11.00% | 27 | 29 | 31 | 33 | 36 |
| 11.50% | 25 | 27 | 28 | 30 | 33 |
| 12.00% | 23 | 25 | 26 | 28 | 30 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹25.23; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 22 · 30 · 40 |
| Draws below the CMP | 21% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.87 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.43 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.08 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 427 | 560 | 597 | 698 | 817 | 955 | 1,118 | 1,308 | 1,530 |
| growth % | 69.2 | 31.1 | 6.6 | 16.9 | 17.0 | 17.0 | 17.0 | 17.0 | 17.0 |
| EBITDA | 108 | 184 | 205 | 214 | 251 | 293 | 343 | 401 | 470 |
| margin % | 25.3 | 32.8 | 34.4 | 30.7 | 30.7 | 30.7 | 30.7 | 30.7 | 30.7 |
| less depreciation | (22) | (40) | (42) | (51) | (60) | (70) | (82) | (95) | (112) |
| EBIT | 87 | 144 | 163 | 163 | 191 | 224 | 262 | 306 | 358 |
| less tax on EBIT | (45) | (53) | (62) | (72) | (84) | (99) | |||
| NOPAT | 118 | 138 | 162 | 189 | 222 | 259 | |||
| add depreciation | 22 | 40 | 42 | 51 | 60 | 70 | 82 | 95 | 112 |
| less capex | 0 | (0) | (59) | 0 | 0 | (21) | (49) | (86) | (134) |
| less working-capital build | — | (51) | (59) | (70) | (81) | (95) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 160 | 29 | 84 | — | 147 | 151 | 152 | 150 | 142 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 140 | 129 | 117 | 104 | 89 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 279, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 163 | 191 | 224 | 262 | 306 | 358 |
| Interest at 9.8% on debt | (27) | (27) | (27) | (27) | (27) | |
| Profit before tax | 164 | 196 | 234 | 279 | 331 | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | 119 | 142 | 170 | 202 | 239 |
| Dividends | (2) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 41 | 168 | 300 | 433 | 563 | 685 |
| Working capital | 299 | 349 | 409 | 478 | 560 | 655 |
| Net block and other assets | 813 | 754 | 705 | 672 | 663 | 685 |
| Debt | 279 | 279 | 279 | 279 | 279 | 279 |
| Equity | 687 | 805 | 947 | 1,117 | 1,319 | 1,558 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 127 | 152 | 182 | 216 | 256 | |
| Investing (capex) | 0 | (21) | (49) | (86) | (134) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 127 | 131 | 133 | 130 | 122 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 127 | 131 | 133 | 130 | 122 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 17% | 30.7% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹31 | 22.0% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.