Models
MAGELLANIC CLOUD LIMITEDMCLOUDIT - Software
₹32per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹32implied FY26 P/E 17.0× · EV/EBITDA 9.9×
Against CMP ₹24.12+32.5%close of 6 Nov 2026
Growth the CMP implies(0.0)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3180%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹23₹49
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹19₹69
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 433 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,688 |
| Enterprise value | 2,121 |
| less net debt | (238) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,883 |
| ÷ 58.91 crore shares | ₹32 |
80% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 33 | 36 | 39 | 44 | 49 |
| 10.50% | 30 | 33 | 35 | 39 | 43 |
| 11.00% | 28 | 30 | 32 | 35 | 38 |
| 11.50% | 25 | 27 | 29 | 31 | 34 |
| 12.00% | 23 | 25 | 27 | 29 | 31 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹24.12; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 23 · 31 · 42 |
| Draws below the CMP | 15% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.86 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.45 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.12 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 427 | 560 | 597 | 698 | 817 | 955 | 1,118 | 1,308 | 1,530 |
| growth % | 69.2 | 31.1 | 6.6 | 16.9 | 17.0 | 17.0 | 17.0 | 17.0 | 17.0 |
| EBITDA | 108 | 184 | 205 | 214 | 251 | 293 | 343 | 401 | 470 |
| margin % | 25.3 | 32.8 | 34.4 | 30.7 | 30.7 | 30.7 | 30.7 | 30.7 | 30.7 |
| less depreciation | (22) | (40) | (42) | (51) | (60) | (70) | (82) | (95) | (112) |
| EBIT | 87 | 144 | 163 | 163 | 191 | 224 | 262 | 306 | 358 |
| less tax on EBIT | (36) | (42) | (49) | (57) | (67) | (78) | |||
| NOPAT | 128 | 149 | 175 | 205 | 239 | 280 | |||
| add depreciation | 22 | 40 | 42 | 51 | 60 | 70 | 82 | 95 | 112 |
| less capex | 0 | (0) | (59) | (70) | (82) | (93) | (105) | (119) | (134) |
| less working-capital build | — | (51) | (59) | (70) | (81) | (95) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 160 | 29 | 84 | — | 77 | 93 | 112 | 135 | 162 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 73 | 79 | 86 | 94 | 102 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 279, dividends at 1.3% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 163 | 191 | 224 | 262 | 306 | 358 |
| Interest at 9.8% on debt | (27) | (27) | (27) | (27) | (27) | |
| Profit before tax | 164 | 196 | 234 | 279 | 331 | |
| Profit after tax | 114 | 128 | 153 | 183 | 218 | 259 |
| Dividends | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (3) | (3) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 41 | 95 | 164 | 252 | 363 | 500 |
| Working capital | 299 | 349 | 409 | 478 | 560 | 655 |
| Net block and other assets | 813 | 836 | 858 | 882 | 905 | 927 |
| Debt | 279 | 279 | 279 | 279 | 279 | 279 |
| Equity | 687 | 813 | 965 | 1,145 | 1,361 | 1,616 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | 0 | 0 | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 137 | 164 | 195 | 232 | 275 | |
| Investing (capex) | (82) | (93) | (105) | (119) | (134) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (3) | (3) | |
| Net change in cash | 54 | 69 | 88 | 111 | 138 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 55 | 71 | 90 | 113 | 141 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 17% | 30.7% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹32 | 32.5% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.