Models
MAHESHWARI LOGISTICS LTD.MAHESHWARICommercial Services & Supplies
₹-77per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹(77)implied FY26 P/E (14.4)× · EV/EBITDA 0.6×
Against CMP ₹70.01−209.5%close of 28 Oct 2026
Growth the CMP implies—%no growth rate between −20% and 45% a year brings the value to the CMP on your other inputs
Value after FY31199%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹(85)₹(61)
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹39₹77
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | (41) |
| PV of terminal value | 82 |
| Enterprise value | 41 |
| less net debt | (268) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | (227) |
| ÷ 2.96 crore shares | ₹(77) |
199% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | (76) | (73) | (70) | (66) | (61) |
| 10.50% | (79) | (76) | (74) | (70) | (66) |
| 11.00% | (81) | (79) | (77) | (74) | (71) |
| 11.50% | (83) | (81) | (79) | (77) | (74) |
| 12.00% | (85) | (83) | (82) | (80) | (78) |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹70.01; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | (154) · (77) · (15) |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.77 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.62 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.05 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,149 | 1,048 | 973 | 1,110 | 1,265 | 1,443 | 1,645 | 1,875 | 2,137 |
| growth % | 11.0 | (8.8) | (7.1) | 14.1 | 14.0 | 14.0 | 14.0 | 14.0 | 14.0 |
| EBITDA | 50 | 54 | 69 | 70 | 80 | 91 | 104 | 118 | 135 |
| margin % | 4.4 | 5.2 | 7.0 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.3 |
| less depreciation | (12) | (12) | (16) | (17) | (20) | (23) | (26) | (30) | (34) |
| EBIT | 38 | 42 | 53 | 53 | 59 | 68 | 77 | 88 | 100 |
| less tax on EBIT | (15) | (16) | (19) | (21) | (24) | (28) | |||
| NOPAT | 38 | 43 | 49 | 56 | 64 | 73 | |||
| add depreciation | 12 | 12 | 16 | 17 | 20 | 23 | 26 | 30 | 34 |
| less capex | (35) | (45) | (27) | (44) | (51) | (50) | (49) | (46) | (41) |
| less working-capital build | — | (34) | (39) | (45) | (51) | (58) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 3 | (19) | 30 | — | (22) | (17) | (11) | (3) | 8 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (21) | (15) | (9) | (2) | 5 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 275, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 53 | 59 | 68 | 77 | 88 | 100 |
| Interest at 12.9% on debt | (35) | (35) | (35) | (35) | (35) | |
| Profit before tax | 24 | 32 | 42 | 53 | 65 | |
| Profit after tax | 17 | 17 | 23 | 30 | 38 | 47 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 7 | (40) | (83) | (120) | (148) | (166) |
| Working capital | 245 | 279 | 318 | 363 | 414 | 472 |
| Net block and other assets | 396 | 426 | 454 | 476 | 492 | 499 |
| Debt | 275 | 275 | 275 | 275 | 275 | 275 |
| Equity | 218 | 236 | 259 | 289 | 327 | 375 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 3 | 7 | 12 | 17 | 23 | |
| Investing (capex) | (51) | (50) | (49) | (46) | (41) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | (47) | (43) | (37) | (29) | (18) | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (47) | (43) | (37) | (29) | (18) | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 14% | 6.3% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹(77) | (209.5)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.