Models
MANAKSIA STEELS LTDMANAKSTEEL
₹20per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹20implied FY26 P/E 2.4× · EV/EBITDA 3.6×
Against CMP ₹108.45−81.3%close of 2026-09-20
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY31107%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹7₹47
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹45₹121
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | (20) |
| PV of terminal value | 298 |
| Enterprise value | 278 |
| less net debt | (145) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 133 |
| ÷ 6.55 crore shares | ₹20 |
107% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 22 | 26 | 32 | 39 | 47 |
| 10.50% | 17 | 21 | 26 | 31 | 37 |
| 11.00% | 13 | 17 | 20 | 25 | 30 |
| 11.50% | 10 | 13 | 16 | 19 | 24 |
| 12.00% | 7 | 9 | 12 | 15 | 19 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹108.45; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | (50) · 20 · 68 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.71 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.68 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.11 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 742 | 681 | 634 | 1,131 | 1,470 | 1,912 | 2,485 | 3,231 | 4,200 |
| growth % | 21.5 | (8.3) | (6.9) | 78.3 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| EBITDA | 24 | 37 | 14 | 77 | 100 | 130 | 169 | 220 | 286 |
| margin % | 3.2 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 6.8 |
| less depreciation | (10) | (7) | (6) | (11) | (15) | (19) | (25) | (32) | (42) |
| EBIT | 14 | 30 | 8 | 66 | 85 | 111 | 144 | 187 | 244 |
| less tax on EBIT | (17) | (22) | (29) | (38) | (49) | (64) | |||
| NOPAT | 48 | 63 | 82 | 106 | 138 | 180 | |||
| add depreciation | 10 | 7 | 6 | 11 | 15 | 19 | 25 | 32 | 42 |
| less capex | (8) | (39) | (71) | (37) | (49) | (53) | (56) | (56) | (50) |
| less working-capital build | — | (50) | (65) | (84) | (110) | (142) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 16 | (91) | (57) | — | (21) | (17) | (9) | 5 | 29 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (20) | (15) | (7) | 4 | 18 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 149, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 66 | 85 | 111 | 144 | 187 | 244 |
| Interest at 9% on debt | (13) | (13) | (13) | (13) | (13) | |
| Profit before tax | 72 | 97 | 131 | 174 | 230 | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | 53 | 72 | 96 | 128 | 170 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 5 | (26) | (53) | (72) | (77) | (58) |
| Working capital | 166 | 216 | 281 | 365 | 475 | 617 |
| Net block and other assets | 422 | 456 | 490 | 521 | 544 | 553 |
| Debt | 149 | 149 | 149 | 149 | 149 | 149 |
| Equity | 326 | 379 | 451 | 547 | 675 | 845 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 18 | 26 | 37 | 51 | 69 | |
| Investing (capex) | (49) | (53) | (56) | (56) | (50) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | (31) | (27) | (19) | (5) | 19 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (31) | (27) | (19) | (5) | 19 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 30% | 6.8% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹20 | (81.3)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.