MANGALAM SEEDS LTD. — valuation model

MANGALAM SEEDS LTD.MSLAgricultural Food & other Products

₹27per share · Base Model Note

Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.

Scenario

Value per share, your model₹27implied FY26 P/E 3.6× · EV/EBITDA 4.8×

Against CMP ₹134.85−80.0%close of 9 Oct 2026

Growth the CMP implies—%no growth rate between −20% and 45% a year brings the value to the CMP on your other inputs

Value after FY3186%share of enterprise value in the terminal

This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.

Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP

DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid

₹9₹63

52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value

₹120₹167

From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore

PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow	11
PV of terminal value	67
Enterprise value	78
less net debt	(48)
less non-controlling interest	0
add non-operating investments	0
Equity value	30
÷ 1.10 crore shares	₹27

86% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.

Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore

Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm

Sensitivity · ₹ per share

Down Across

WACC ↓terminal growth →	4.0%	4.5%	5.0%	5.5%	6.0%
10.00%	29	35	43	52	63
10.50%	23	28	34	41	50
11.00%	18	22	27	33	40
11.50%	13	17	21	26	31
12.00%	9	12	16	20	25

The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹134.85; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.

Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together

10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share	(11) · 26 · 61
Draws below the CMP	100%
Rank correlation with ebitda margin	+0.69
Rank correlation with revenue growth	−0.65
Rank correlation with discount rate	−0.24

Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.

Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore

History Forward

₹ crore	FY23	FY24	FY25	FY26	FY27	FY28	FY29	FY30	FY31
Revenue	65	112	103	112	122	133	145	158	173
growth %	60.0	71.9	(8.2)	8.8	9.0	9.0	9.0	9.0	9.0
EBITDA	16	21	18	16	18	19	21	23	25
margin %	24.5	18.3	17.4	14.6	14.6	14.6	14.6	14.6	14.6
less depreciation	(1)	(2)	(2)	(2)	(2)	(2)	(3)	(3)	(3)
EBIT	15	19	16	14	16	17	19	20	22
less tax on EBIT				(3)	(3)	(3)	(4)	(4)	(4)
NOPAT				11	13	14	15	16	18
add depreciation	1	2	2	2	2	2	3	3	3
less capex	(2)	(31)	(10)	(6)	(7)	(6)	(6)	(5)	(4)
less working-capital build				—	(8)	(8)	(9)	(10)	(11)
Free cash flow to firm	3	(32)	(10)	—	0	2	3	5	6
Discount factor					0.949	0.855	0.770	0.694	0.625
Present value					0	1	2	3	4

History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.

The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 49, dividends at 0% of profit

₹ crore	FY26	FY27	FY28	FY29	FY30	FY31
Income statement
EBIT	14	16	17	19	20	22
Interest at 7.2% on debt		(4)	(4)	(4)	(4)	(4)
Profit before tax		12	14	15	17	19
Profit after tax	8	10	11	12	13	15
Dividends	0	0	0	0	0	0
Balance sheet, year end
Cash	2	(1)	(2)	(2)	(0)	3
Working capital	85	92	100	109	119	130
Net block and other assets	78	82	86	89	91	92
Debt	49	49	49	49	49	49
Equity	90	100	111	123	137	151
Balance check	0	(0)	0	(0)	(0)	(0)
Cash flow
From operations		4	5	6	6	7
Investing (capex)		(7)	(6)	(6)	(5)	(4)
Financing (dividends)		0	0	0	0	0
Net change in cash		(3)	(1)	0	2	4
Free cash flow to equity		(3)	(1)	0	2	4

Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.

Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share

Scenario	Template	Growth	Margin	Rate	Terminal	₹ / share	vs CMP
Base · editing	DCF	9%	14.6%	11.00%	5%	₹27	(80.0)%

A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.