MARKOLINES PAVEMENT TEC L — valuation model

MARKOLINES PAVEMENT TEC LMARKOLINESConstruction

₹64per share · Base Model Note

Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.

Scenario

Value per share, your model₹64implied FY26 P/E 5.3× · EV/EBITDA 5.7×

Against CMP ₹168.91−61.8%close of 2026-09-21

Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs

Value after FY3175%share of enterprise value in the terminal

This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.

Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP

DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid

₹42₹110

52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value

₹132₹192

From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore

PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow	58
PV of terminal value	170
Enterprise value	227
less net debt	(84)
less non-controlling interest	0
add non-operating investments	0
Equity value	143
÷ 2.22 crore shares	₹64

Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore

Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm

Sensitivity · ₹ per share

Down Across

WACC ↓terminal growth →	4.0%	4.5%	5.0%	5.5%	6.0%
10.00%	68	75	85	96	110
10.50%	60	66	74	83	94
11.00%	53	58	64	72	81
11.50%	47	52	57	63	70
12.00%	42	46	50	55	61

The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹168.91; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.

Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together

10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share	18 · 63 · 104
Draws below the CMP	100%
Rank correlation with ebitda margin	+0.79
Rank correlation with revenue growth	−0.53
Rank correlation with discount rate	−0.26

Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.

Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore

History Forward

₹ crore	FY23	FY24	FY25	FY26	FY27	FY28	FY29	FY30	FY31
Revenue	312	347	307	348	396	449	510	578	656
growth %	—	11.4	(11.5)	13.4	13.5	13.5	13.5	13.5	13.5
EBITDA	—	—	—	40	45	52	59	67	75
margin %	—	—	—	11.5	11.5	11.5	11.5	11.5	11.5
less depreciation	—	—	—	(7)	(8)	(9)	(10)	(12)	(13)
EBIT	—	—	—	33	38	43	48	55	62
less tax on EBIT				(8)	(10)	(11)	(12)	(14)	(16)
NOPAT				25	28	32	36	41	47
add depreciation	—	—	—	7	8	9	10	12	13
less capex	—	—	(10)	(5)	(6)	(8)	(10)	(13)	(16)
less working-capital build				—	(17)	(19)	(21)	(24)	(28)
Free cash flow to firm	—	—	(46)	—	13	14	15	16	16
Discount factor					0.949	0.855	0.770	0.694	0.625
Present value					13	12	12	11	10

History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.

The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 86, dividends at 0% of profit

₹ crore	FY26	FY27	FY28	FY29	FY30	FY31
Income statement
EBIT	33	38	43	48	55	62
Interest at 7.4% on debt		(6)	(6)	(6)	(6)	(6)
Profit before tax		31	36	42	49	56
Profit after tax	0	23	27	31	36	42
Dividends	(3)	0	0	0	0	0
Balance sheet, year end
Cash	2	10	20	30	41	53
Working capital	123	140	159	180	204	232
Net block and other assets	214	212	211	211	212	215
Debt	86	86	86	86	86	86
Equity	203	226	253	284	321	362
Balance check	0	0	0	0	(0)	0
Cash flow
From operations		15	17	20	24	27
Investing (capex)		(6)	(8)	(10)	(13)	(16)
Financing (dividends)		0	0	0	0	0
Net change in cash		9	9	10	11	12
Free cash flow to equity		9	9	10	11	12

Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.

Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share

Scenario	Template	Growth	Margin	Rate	Terminal	₹ / share	vs CMP
Base · editing	DCF	13.5%	11.5%	11.00%	5%	₹64	(61.8)%

A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.