Models
MARSONS LIMITEDMARSONSElectrical Equipment
₹55per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹55implied FY26 P/E 21.6× · EV/EBITDA 22.4×
Against CMP ₹126.83−56.3%close of 8 Oct 2026
Growth the CMP implies—%no growth rate between −20% and 45% a year brings the value to the CMP on your other inputs
Value after FY3182%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹42₹82
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹100₹175
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 171 |
| PV of terminal value | 775 |
| Enterprise value | 947 |
| less net debt | 7 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 954 |
| ÷ 17.21 crore shares | ₹55 |
82% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 57 | 62 | 67 | 74 | 82 |
| 10.50% | 53 | 56 | 61 | 66 | 73 |
| 11.00% | 49 | 52 | 55 | 60 | 65 |
| 11.50% | 45 | 48 | 51 | 55 | 59 |
| 12.00% | 42 | 44 | 47 | 50 | 54 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹126.83; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 40 · 54 · 70 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.86 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.44 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.07 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY19 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 0 | 168 | 245 | 319 | 415 | 539 | 701 | 911 |
| growth % | — | 48419.4 | 45.8 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| EBITDA | (18) | 25 | 42 | 55 | 71 | 93 | 121 | 157 |
| margin % | (5142.1) | 14.9 | 17.2 | 17.2 | 17.2 | 17.2 | 17.2 | 17.2 |
| less depreciation | (3) | (0) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (2) | (2) | (3) |
| EBIT | (21) | 25 | 42 | 54 | 70 | 91 | 118 | 154 |
| less tax on EBIT | 4 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 15 | ||
| NOPAT | 46 | 59 | 77 | 100 | 130 | 169 | ||
| add depreciation | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| less capex | — | (2) | (2) | (2) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) |
| less working-capital build | — | (33) | (43) | (55) | (72) | (94) | ||
| Free cash flow to firm | — | (37) | — | 25 | 33 | 43 | 57 | 75 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |||
| Present value | 24 | 28 | 33 | 39 | 47 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 1, dividends at 1.9% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 42 | 54 | 70 | 91 | 118 | 154 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | |
| Profit before tax | 54 | 70 | 91 | 118 | 154 | |
| Profit after tax | 46 | 59 | 77 | 100 | 130 | 169 |
| Dividends | (1) | (1) | (1) | (2) | (2) | (3) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 8 | 31 | 63 | 104 | 158 | 230 |
| Working capital | 109 | 142 | 185 | 240 | 312 | 406 |
| Net block and other assets | 174 | 175 | 176 | 178 | 179 | 179 |
| Debt | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Equity | 218 | 276 | 351 | 449 | 576 | 742 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 27 | 35 | 46 | 60 | 78 | |
| Investing (capex) | (2) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (1) | (1) | (2) | (2) | (3) | |
| Net change in cash | 24 | 31 | 41 | 54 | 71 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 25 | 33 | 43 | 57 | 75 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 30% | 17.2% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹55 | (56.3)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.