Models
MITCON CON & ENG SER LTDMITCONCommercial Services & Supplies
₹75per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹75implied FY26 P/E 11.9× · EV/EBITDA 6.8×
Against CMP ₹75.51−0.6%close of 9 Oct 2026
Growth the CMP implies—%no growth rate between −20% and 45% a year brings the value to the CMP on your other inputs
Value after FY3169%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹50₹125
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹50₹93
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 66 |
| PV of terminal value | 146 |
| Enterprise value | 212 |
| less net debt | (81) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 131 |
| ÷ 1.74 crore shares | ₹75 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 79 | 87 | 97 | 109 | 125 |
| 10.50% | 70 | 77 | 85 | 95 | 107 |
| 11.00% | 62 | 68 | 75 | 83 | 93 |
| 11.50% | 56 | 61 | 66 | 73 | 81 |
| 12.00% | 50 | 54 | 59 | 65 | 71 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹75.51; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 41 · 74 · 109 |
| Draws below the CMP | 52% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.91 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.36 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.12 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 84 | 129 | 113 | 126 | 140 | 156 | 174 | 194 | 217 |
| growth % | (21.5) | 54.7 | (12.9) | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 |
| EBITDA | 16 | 29 | 29 | 31 | 34 | 38 | 43 | 48 | 53 |
| margin % | 19.0 | 22.2 | 25.9 | 24.6 | 24.6 | 24.6 | 24.6 | 24.6 | 24.6 |
| less depreciation | (6) | (8) | (9) | (10) | (11) | (12) | (14) | (15) | (17) |
| EBIT | 10 | 21 | 20 | 21 | 24 | 26 | 29 | 33 | 36 |
| less tax on EBIT | (5) | (6) | (7) | (7) | (8) | (9) | |||
| NOPAT | 16 | 18 | 20 | 22 | 24 | 27 | |||
| add depreciation | 6 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 14 | 15 | 17 |
| less capex | (16) | (36) | (15) | (4) | (4) | (7) | (11) | (15) | (20) |
| less working-capital build | — | (6) | (7) | (8) | (9) | (10) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 13 | (12) | 6 | — | 18 | 18 | 17 | 16 | 14 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 17 | 15 | 13 | 11 | 9 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 92, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 21 | 24 | 26 | 29 | 33 | 36 |
| Interest at 10.7% on debt | (10) | (10) | (10) | (10) | (10) | |
| Profit before tax | 14 | 16 | 19 | 23 | 27 | |
| Profit after tax | 8 | 10 | 12 | 15 | 17 | 20 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 11 | 21 | 32 | 42 | 50 | 57 |
| Working capital | 55 | 61 | 68 | 76 | 85 | 95 |
| Net block and other assets | 256 | 249 | 244 | 241 | 241 | 244 |
| Debt | 92 | 92 | 92 | 92 | 92 | 92 |
| Equity | 173 | 183 | 195 | 210 | 227 | 247 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 15 | 17 | 20 | 23 | 27 | |
| Investing (capex) | (4) | (7) | (11) | (15) | (20) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 11 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 7 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 11 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 7 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 11.5% | 24.6% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹75 | (0.6)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.