Models
MODERN DAIRIES LTD.BSE 519287Food Products
₹21per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹21implied FY26 P/E 10.8× · EV/EBITDA 6.3×
Against CMP ₹53.00−59.9%close of 8 Oct 2026
Growth the CMP implies—%no growth rate between −20% and 45% a year brings the value to the CMP on your other inputs
Value after FY3164%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹17₹29
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹27₹56
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 22 |
| PV of terminal value | 39 |
| Enterprise value | 61 |
| less net debt | (1) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 60 |
| ÷ 2.85 crore shares | ₹21 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 22 | 23 | 25 | 27 | 29 |
| 10.50% | 20 | 22 | 23 | 25 | 27 |
| 11.00% | 19 | 20 | 21 | 23 | 24 |
| 11.50% | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 |
| 12.00% | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹53.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 18 · 21 · 25 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.80 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.57 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.02 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 216 | 361 | 348 | 340 | 331 | 323 | 315 | 307 | 300 |
| growth % | (10.6) | 67.3 | (3.7) | (2.3) | (2.5) | (2.5) | (2.5) | (2.5) | (2.5) |
| EBITDA | 15 | 41 | 70 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| margin % | 7.1 | 11.3 | 20.1 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.9 |
| less depreciation | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) |
| EBIT | 12 | 38 | 67 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| less tax on EBIT | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | |||
| NOPAT | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | |||
| add depreciation | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| less capex | (3) | (5) | (4) | (1) | (1) | (2) | (2) | (3) | (4) |
| less working-capital build | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 12 | 43 | 17 | — | 7 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 7 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 12, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| Interest at 11.9% on debt | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | |
| Profit before tax | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | |
| Profit after tax | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 10 | 16 | 22 | 26 | 30 | 33 |
| Working capital | 12 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 11 |
| Net block and other assets | 109 | 107 | 105 | 104 | 104 | 105 |
| Debt | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 |
| Equity | 55 | 59 | 62 | 66 | 69 | 72 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | |
| Investing (capex) | (1) | (2) | (2) | (3) | (4) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 6 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 6 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -2.5% | 2.9% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹21 | (59.9)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.