Models
MODI NATURALS LIMITEDMODINATUR
₹458per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹458implied FY26 P/E 11.6× · EV/EBITDA 9.8×
Against CMP ₹296.90+54.4%close of 8 Oct 2026
Growth the CMP implies(4.3)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3194%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹300₹776
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹252₹525
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 50 |
| PV of terminal value | 719 |
| Enterprise value | 769 |
| less net debt | (159) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 610 |
| ÷ 1.33 crore shares | ₹458 |
94% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 480 | 534 | 598 | 677 | 776 |
| 10.50% | 424 | 469 | 522 | 585 | 663 |
| 11.00% | 377 | 414 | 458 | 510 | 573 |
| 11.50% | 336 | 368 | 405 | 448 | 499 |
| 12.00% | 300 | 327 | 359 | 395 | 438 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹296.90; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 335 · 451 · 599 |
| Draws below the CMP | 4% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.71 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.63 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.19 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 418 | 400 | 663 | 719 | 780 | 847 | 919 | 997 | 1,081 |
| growth % | (11.9) | (4.3) | 65.8 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 8.5 |
| EBITDA | 5 | 9 | 56 | 78 | 85 | 92 | 100 | 109 | 118 |
| margin % | 1.2 | 2.3 | 8.4 | 10.9 | 10.9 | 10.9 | 10.9 | 10.9 | 10.9 |
| less depreciation | (2) | (4) | (8) | (8) | (9) | (9) | (10) | (11) | (12) |
| EBIT | 4 | 5 | 48 | 70 | 76 | 83 | 90 | 98 | 106 |
| less tax on EBIT | (15) | (16) | (17) | (19) | (20) | (22) | |||
| NOPAT | 56 | 60 | 66 | 71 | 77 | 84 | |||
| add depreciation | 2 | 4 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
| less capex | (90) | (34) | (20) | (80) | (87) | (73) | (57) | (38) | (14) |
| less working-capital build | — | (9) | (10) | (10) | (11) | (12) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (96) | (40) | 29 | — | (26) | (8) | 14 | 39 | 69 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (25) | (7) | 11 | 27 | 43 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 161, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 70 | 76 | 83 | 90 | 98 | 106 |
| Interest at 5% on debt | (8) | (8) | (8) | (8) | (8) | |
| Profit before tax | 68 | 75 | 82 | 90 | 98 | |
| Profit after tax | 50 | 54 | 59 | 65 | 71 | 77 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 2 | (31) | (45) | (38) | (5) | 58 |
| Working capital | 104 | 112 | 122 | 132 | 144 | 156 |
| Net block and other assets | 301 | 379 | 443 | 490 | 517 | 519 |
| Debt | 161 | 161 | 161 | 161 | 161 | 161 |
| Equity | 172 | 226 | 286 | 350 | 421 | 499 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | 0 | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 54 | 59 | 65 | 71 | 77 | |
| Investing (capex) | (87) | (73) | (57) | (38) | (14) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | (33) | (14) | 8 | 33 | 63 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (33) | (14) | 8 | 33 | 63 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 8.5% | 10.9% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹458 | 54.4% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.