Models
NAHAR SPINNING MILLS LTD.NAHARSPING
₹-14per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹(14)implied FY26 P/E (0.6)× · EV/EBITDA 6.0×
Against CMP ₹253.50−105.4%close of 28 Oct 2026
Growth the CMP implies—%no growth rate between −20% and 45% a year brings the value to the CMP on your other inputs
Value after FY3166%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹(65)₹88
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹149₹349
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 318 |
| PV of terminal value | 615 |
| Enterprise value | 933 |
| less net debt | (982) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | (49) |
| ÷ 3.61 crore shares | ₹(14) |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | (6) | 11 | 32 | 56 | 88 |
| 10.50% | (24) | (10) | 7 | 27 | 51 |
| 11.00% | (39) | (27) | (14) | 3 | 22 |
| 11.50% | (53) | (43) | (31) | (17) | (1) |
| 12.00% | (65) | (56) | (46) | (35) | (21) |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹253.50; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | (66) · (13) · 45 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.86 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.49 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.02 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2,797 | 3,050 | 3,285 | 3,218 | 3,154 | 3,090 | 3,029 | 2,968 | 2,909 |
| growth % | (22.2) | 9.0 | 7.7 | (2.0) | (2.0) | (2.0) | (2.0) | (2.0) | (2.0) |
| EBITDA | 208 | 78 | 156 | 157 | 155 | 151 | 148 | 145 | 143 |
| margin % | 7.5 | 2.5 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.9 |
| less depreciation | (73) | (88) | (95) | (91) | (88) | (87) | (85) | (83) | (81) |
| EBIT | 136 | (11) | 61 | 65 | 66 | 65 | 64 | 62 | 61 |
| less tax on EBIT | (11) | (11) | (11) | (10) | (10) | (10) | |||
| NOPAT | 55 | 55 | 54 | 53 | 52 | 51 | |||
| add depreciation | 73 | 88 | 95 | 91 | 88 | 87 | 85 | 83 | 81 |
| less capex | (271) | (115) | (45) | (71) | (69) | (77) | (84) | (91) | (98) |
| less working-capital build | — | 26 | 26 | 25 | 25 | 24 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 338 | (510) | 48 | — | 101 | 90 | 79 | 69 | 59 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 96 | 77 | 61 | 48 | 37 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 983, dividends at 16.5% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 65 | 66 | 65 | 64 | 62 | 61 |
| Interest at 5.2% on debt | (51) | (51) | (51) | (51) | (51) | |
| Profit before tax | 15 | 14 | 12 | 11 | 10 | |
| Profit after tax | 22 | 13 | 12 | 10 | 9 | 8 |
| Dividends | (4) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (1) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 1 | 57 | 102 | 137 | 161 | 176 |
| Working capital | 1,315 | 1,289 | 1,263 | 1,238 | 1,213 | 1,189 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,377 | 1,358 | 1,348 | 1,348 | 1,356 | 1,372 |
| Debt | 983 | 983 | 983 | 983 | 983 | 983 |
| Equity | 1,512 | 1,523 | 1,532 | 1,541 | 1,549 | 1,556 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 127 | 124 | 121 | 117 | 114 | |
| Investing (capex) | (69) | (77) | (84) | (91) | (98) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (1) | |
| Net change in cash | 56 | 45 | 35 | 25 | 15 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 58 | 47 | 36 | 26 | 16 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -2% | 4.9% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹(14) | (105.4)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.