Models
NATIONAL FERT. LTDNFLFertilizers & Agrochemicals
₹-134per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹(134)implied FY26 P/E (18.0)× · EV/EBITDA (3.2)×
Against CMP ₹68.70−294.9%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY31—share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹(164)₹(119)
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹63₹101
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | (152) |
| PV of terminal value | (2,511) |
| Enterprise value | (2,663) |
| less net debt | (3,904) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | (6,567) |
| ÷ 49.06 crore shares | ₹(134) |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | (136) | (141) | (147) | (155) | (164) |
| 10.50% | (131) | (135) | (140) | (146) | (153) |
| 11.00% | (126) | (130) | (134) | (139) | (145) |
| 11.50% | (122) | (125) | (129) | (133) | (138) |
| 12.00% | (119) | (121) | (124) | (128) | (132) |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹68.70; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | (190) · (134) · (87) |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.85 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.50 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | +0.16 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 29,617 | 23,560 | 19,795 | 21,514 | 23,343 | 25,327 | 27,480 | 29,816 | 32,350 |
| growth % | 86.8 | (20.4) | (16.0) | 8.7 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 8.5 |
| EBITDA | 1,072 | 618 | 608 | 834 | 910 | 988 | 1,072 | 1,163 | 1,262 |
| margin % | 3.6 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.9 |
| less depreciation | (353) | (362) | (373) | (405) | (444) | (481) | (522) | (566) | (615) |
| EBIT | 719 | 256 | 235 | 428 | 467 | 507 | 550 | 596 | 647 |
| less tax on EBIT | (116) | (127) | (137) | (149) | (162) | (175) | |||
| NOPAT | 312 | 340 | 369 | 401 | 435 | 472 | |||
| add depreciation | 353 | 362 | 373 | 405 | 444 | 481 | 522 | 566 | 615 |
| less capex | (208) | (292) | (204) | (228) | (257) | (353) | (464) | (592) | (738) |
| less working-capital build | — | (426) | (462) | (502) | (544) | (590) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (541) | 376 | 2,386 | — | 101 | 35 | (43) | (135) | (242) |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 96 | 30 | (33) | (94) | (151) |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 3,959, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 428 | 467 | 507 | 550 | 596 | 647 |
| Interest at 8.4% on debt | (333) | (333) | (333) | (333) | (333) | |
| Profit before tax | 134 | 174 | 217 | 264 | 314 | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | 98 | 127 | 158 | 192 | 229 |
| Dividends | (77) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 55 | (86) | (294) | (580) | (957) | (1,441) |
| Working capital | 5,016 | 5,442 | 5,904 | 6,406 | 6,950 | 7,541 |
| Net block and other assets | 6,653 | 6,466 | 6,338 | 6,281 | 6,306 | 6,429 |
| Debt | 3,959 | 3,959 | 3,959 | 3,959 | 3,959 | 3,959 |
| Equity | 2,841 | 2,939 | 3,066 | 3,224 | 3,416 | 3,645 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 115 | 146 | 179 | 215 | 253 | |
| Investing (capex) | (257) | (353) | (464) | (592) | (738) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | (141) | (208) | (286) | (377) | (484) | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (141) | (208) | (286) | (377) | (484) | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 8.5% | 3.9% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹(134) | (294.9)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.